Let me dream a little….
Ok, as we touch down on the greasy runway of 2016, let me throw a few big predictions around.
I know these are long-shots, but there’s no downside to making them. If I get them right, I can point back to this post in a year and remind people how clever I am.
If I’m wrong, the world will move on and no one will remember.
Welcome to the world of economic forecasting.
Anyway, here’s Jon Giaan’s big calls for 2017:
1. 2017 will be the last roll of the dice for Main Stream Media
Pretty much the only profitable business centres that the main stream papers have left are their property sections – most of which is online already. If it wasn’t for real estate, the big papers would be dead already.
The ‘fake news’ controversy – the proliferation of bulls$%t sites pushing all sorts of propaganda – finally gives the MSM the existential justification it needs.
That is, you need respected MSM outlets to help you filter out the bulls$%t. (I know, the irony!)
I expect the MSM to go hard on this angle. Expect some sort of ‘MSM-certified’ badge. Expect public shaming of people who use alternative news sources.
It might work. But if they don’t pull it off they’ll go under in 2018.
2. The Return of Propaganda Politics
You can be sure that politicians the world over are studying Trump’s victory (and how to replicate it).
I think the key message is the way Trump focused on the felt-experience of his voters, pretty much leaving facts to the side. He’s achieved some high-profile, big-ticket wins straight out of the gate, and you can be bet he’ll stay focused on the ‘brand’ of his presidency.
Which is another way of saying he’ll be a propaganda machine.
The other key asset Trump had was authenticity. People believed him, even if they didn’t believe what he said. (Huh? Yep, they’re mutually possible.) Politicians don’t have this authenticity. Politics as a game forces them to constantly speak through their hands. They’re on a hiding to nothing.
Expect more billionaire brand mangers making hay by telling it how it is.
3. Turnbull is toast. Hanson is vegemite.
Turnbull is a lost cause. It is clear he can’t control Abbott and the right, who are all the more emboldened following Trump’s victory. Abbott will take back the leadership in 2017, despite being unpopular and unelectable.
However, if they don’t play it right, Hanson will kill the Liberal party. Recently, Dick Smith was talking to Hanson about immigration. If Smith can get Hanson to focus on the numbers of immigration, not the ethnic mix, then Hanson will have much broader appeal than people realise. Hanson is already polling near 10% in Victoria. A Smith-Hanson ticket would be electoral dynamite.
I think the right of the Liberal party mistake support for Hanson as support for conservative Christian politics. It’s not. It’s a push back against mealy-mouthed politicians who would sell their own mother to China if they could get a good price per kilogram (looking at you again, Andrew Robb, Sam Dastyari). Hanson is popular because she is authentic. She’s like Trump in that sense. (People vote for the person, not the policies.)
The Liberal party will split itself in two trying to appeal to Hanson supporters, and then have their hypocritical arses handed to them regardless.
4. Interest rates have bottomed
I’m talking both here and around the world. Interest rates have gone as low as they’re going to go.
Does that mean I’m suddenly more bullish on the Australian and global economy? Do I suddenly see things in a much rosier light?
Hardly. This is another one we can blame on Donald Trump.
Trump has said he’s gone to work the fiscal levers hard to get the American economy going again. He’s going to spend big and cut taxes. In that sense, he’s an old school Keynesian.
And with Trump’s new approach, we can put a nail in the coffin of Quantitative Easing. Since the GFC, America (and most of the world) has pushed hard on the idea that the way to get things going again was to flood the world with cash.
That was the idea. But it didn’t really work. Rather, banks and firms took the cheap cash and just ploughed it back into their own shares – bidding up the share prices and creating a bit of a share-market bubble. That was kinda great for some people, but it didn’t really get economic activity going again.
I reckon it looks like Trump is going to walk away from all that, and try to spend his way out of trouble. And it will probably work (or at least work better).
That will give the Fed the room it needs to keep bringing rates back to less crazy levels.
That in turn will take pressure of Aussie interest rates. When the US had super low rates, we also had to have lower rates or money would start gushing our way and the Aussie dollar would rise.
So I don’t think this means that rates will rise, but I think it’s the death knell on eight years of rate cuts and the negative interest doctrine… which didn’t really get us anywhere.
And with banks gouging rates at the moment, I think there might be arguments for fixing your rates… though it’s still complicated.
Anyway, there’s four big calls for you. I’m going out on a limb. I’m willing to make myself look like a tit to call it how it is.
But I know you wouldn’t expect anything less from me. And if I ever under-deliver on this front, be sure to pull me up on it.
Hope you had a fantastic year. I’ll be off on a break, but look forward to jumping into more wealth, health and financial freedom with you next year.
All the best from all your team at Knowledge Source,
Jon
Got any hot tips for 2017?
ron goddard says
hi jonno,
you made my day. everything you write is memorable. have you got a ghost (writer that is)?
lets be honest, the financial world is in a mess. everything else is in a bigger mess, because we are civilised. and civilisation has spawned ridiculous theories on all sorts of things. ‘free’ thinkers are everywhere espousing religious b.s., political mayhem etc. etc.
however it is christmas and the man from nazareth must wonder what has changed in the two thousand years since he was ‘here’. he has blessed us with a time for rejoicing and rejoining (with family members and old friends). we go to the new year. what then?
jonno your girl friend hillary is a gonna be the new governor of california, which state is going to secede from the union and be called the republic of california and when that happens in 2019 or whenever, she will be declared president. the movement already has an embassy in moscow. we had a secession movement here in western australia many years ago. the kalgoorlie miners(most of them from victoria) tipped the scales in favour of staying in the commonwealth. its of record so its not b.s. so why should not california go for it? the vote in that state was(8/11/2016): hillary almost 8.5. million and trump 4.2 million, so you can see the obvious. also russian intelligence, the best by far in our world, states that the USA nation will dissect itself into six different entities or nation states within three to five years. food for thought. my source is impeccable as it is always right (proven) and is not m.s.m. b.s. so, the war is not over. mr. trump will be watching his back from now until 20/01/2017 and beyond. the elites are still up and about, make no mistake.
cheers and merry xmas.
John from Perth says
Hi Jon,
All these predictions look good to me except I think the Liberals have learnt by now that reinstating unelectable, ego driven, ex leaders just trashes their party.
My belief is that Hanson is only a threat while the Liberal party is headed by a Leader (Turnbull) who who has pushed the Liberal party to the left. I predict The Liberals will elect Cory Bernadi as leader, he will get the Liberal Party back on track and will win back voters who have Australia’s long term best interest at heart. If Cory does not take over the Liberal party he will form his own conservative party and the Liberal party will become a minor party that continues to fight for left wing votes from the Labor party and Greens.
Tom says
Yet again you deliver gems of insight – a welcome Christmas present for concerned Aussies.
Methinks that Keynsian theology is the one for whom the bell tolls.
Up until now, all the economists’ thought has been based on expansion – but there is no going back to that. In future, the work ethic based on “Work or starve” and “A good day’s wage for a good day’s work” can only apply to the lucky minority.
All over the world, technology is putting multitudes out of work, expanding the numbers of disadvantaged and empoverished poor.
Rome in its decline provided circuses ans soup kitchens for the plebs. What will the post-truth equivalent look like?
The Donald is going to have his time cut ut if he wants to make America great again. Previous Republican administrations saw to that. Their wars only benefited the bankers. The plebs paid their taxes and did the work at home. The nation’s young provided the cannon fodder which came home either under flags, or suffering from horrendous mental diorders.
Maybe Trump is trying to drum up conditions for yet another war. There is certainly no indication of doves flying over his rainbows.
For the life of me, I cannot understand why the Fed trebled the currency in circulation, but did nothing with the money. Apparently all over the USA their infrastructure is in apalling state of disrepair. All those billion$ could have been used on national infrastructure programs, providing work for millions and putting the Billion$ into circulation instead of the coffers of the big banks, whose greed caused the whole catastrophe in the first place – and not one of the crooks has been held to account!!!
Regarding your crystal ball gazing regarding our national political debacle , the mad monk took power by deceiving the people. We all heaved a great sigh of relief when he was ousted. However, our fears were shown to be well founded when the current encumbent was asked to put into practice all the promises he had been engendering in our truth-starved hearts. Let them self implode – good riddance!!!
But when are we going to find a PM who can inspire us to be the great, loving people that we really are?
Alan Maurice says
and the good news??
🙂
KiwiAl says
I’m predicting another major Earthquake in New Zealand in 2017. My bet is on the North Island East Coast, between Wellington and East Cape. Or maybe undersea, further north. Could cause a tsunami, but it will be the earthquake that does the most damage. I think we’ll see more and larger earthquakes all round the Pacific Ring of Fire, and maybe major volcanic eruptions as well.
The weather will become more extreme – hotter, colder, wetter (more / bigger floods), drier (more / bigger droughts), windier, wilder. More, bigger, more violent tornadoes for the US. This *may* cause Trump to rethink his disbelief of Man-made Global Warming (notice how they’re now calling it the euphemistic term “Climate Change” to hide the reality?) but I’m not taking any bets on that one! (A Trump rethink, I mean.)
Corruption and Crime will increase worldwide, in large part incited, driven or facilitated by the Internet. As a result, more internet services will become increasingly difficult to access, validation requirements will increase, and the One World Order will increase its foothold, with Global Citizens’ Electronic IDs being proposed. (I.E. Micro-Chipping people!) Some people (especially those who have suffered Identity Theft) will likely volunteer. An Us and Them mentality will continue to grow.
Weird and bizarre crimes will continue to increase. Kidnappings, ransoms, hostage takings, sex crimes, blackmail and extortion plots, etc etc… Illegal immigration will rise.
Crop Failures and Food Shortages are likely to make appearances, but will probably not be publicised. The underdeveloped countries and their populations will of course suffer most.
That’s my good news.
The bad news is that Australia will probably remain safe from major earthquakes, but bush fires and droughts will worsen. Water shortages will increase. Water prices will increase.
Electric cars will fall in price, and become hugely popular. This may start to overload the national and state Electricity Networks… Electricity prices will increase. Petrol prices will stagnate. Petrol car prices will fall proportional to CC ratings. (Ford and GM’s decisions to quit Australian manufacturing will make much more sense.)
I think that’s enough positivity!
Happy 2017!