Everywhere is still booming, but some booms are bigger than others…
Which city do you think is going to dominate 2022?
My guess is Brisbane, but I could be proven wrong.
One of the interesting things about the property market in 2021 was that everywhere was booming. It was pretty consistent.
It didn’t matter where you went – city to city, out bush. Every property market was going gang-busters.
That’s actually pretty unusual. You normally have a bit of variation from one locality to the next. But that wasn’t the case in 2021.
But that was last year and now it’s 2022. And it’s starting to look like we might see a bit of variation open up again.
Corelogic just released the price data for January, and it continues to point to a booming property market, although price growth is coming off the hectic boil we saw mid to late last year.
Nationally, prices are up a fairly monstrous 22% year on year.
But scroll down the leader board and there’s some pretty astounding results. 30% in regional Tasmania and NSW. 30% in Brisbane. 26% in Sydney.
They’re some big numbers.
When you zoom into the monthly data, you can see there’s a bit of a gap opening up between the leaders and the rest of the peloton.
The rolling three-month average shows that Brisbane and Adelaide are storming ahead, with some of the strongest growth numbers those cities have ever seen.
I’ve been waving a flag for Brisbane for a while now. Not only has Brisbane had a better Covid experience than most of the other capitals, but it is also relatively cheap.
When you plot Brisbane’s price relative to the other capitals, you can see it’s almost as cheap as it’s ever been.
That’s at the same time as Brisbane’s lifestyle advantages and relatively peaceful Covid experience will be exerting massive pulling power on people in the southern states.
With that going on, I just can’t see how property prices won’t keep growing, and growing strongly.
The other city to watch for on this basis is Perth. Perth is the cheapest its ever been by a long way.
For now I think WA’s closed borders will keep a bit of a lid on this, but once they open, I would expect prices to get a spurt on.
The other interesting divergence that’s opening up is between the capitals and the regions.
While capital city growth is starting to slow a little, regional growth is holding at what is (for the regions at least) stratospheric levels.
It seems that the lifestyle factor is still fully in play, and as Covid drags its heels into 2022, I would expect the regional exodus and the price gains it’s delivering to continue into 2022.
So they’re my picks for the year: Brisbane, Perth, and the regions.
Aren’t we just spoiled for choice.