Vic housing targets are hopelessly off track.
Have you heard about Australia’s chronic housing shortage? (Look, I dunno. Maybe you were living under a rock or something.)
But don’t worry. Federal Labor has a plan. They’re going to build 1.2m homes over five years.
Well, they’re not actually going to build it.
The states are going to build it.
Well, the states aren’t going to build it either. They’re going to try and streamline the process and help the markets deliver it.
So, how’s all that going?
Well, at least in my home state of Victoria, the fast track has become a farce track.
Remember Dan Andrews on his way out said Victoria was going to deliver 80,000 homes over ten years – a run rate of 80,000 a year.
Good, decisive leadership.
So, are we hitting that mark?
No. In 2023 we only approved 51,045 dwellings.
But are we at least going in the right direction? Also no. That number is down from 62,281 in 2022 and nearly 71,000 in 2021.
In fact, 2023 saw the lowest level of approvals in a decade!
But is there hope that we might turn things around?
Also no. REIV director Richard Simpson told The AFR the other day:
“I just don’t see how they’re going to hit 80,000 this year given the difficulties of obtaining suitable land, as well as the supply constraints on labour and building materials”,.
“It is really under-investment by governments over a long period of time. And now it’s being turbocharged by the fact we’ve got a significant inflow of migrants to Australia, many of whom are coming to Victoria. They need somewhere to live”, Simpson said.
Ok, so we’re off track, we’re going backwards, and industry insiders think it’s a joke.
But is it at least a reasonable target to set?
Lol. Also no.
Victoria has never delivered more than 75,000 homes in any 12-month period, EVER.
The idea that we’re suddenly going to turn this around and build 80,000 a year, every year, for ten years straight, doesn’t even pass the pub test.
Ok, ok. But is the government focused on the task and making sure we’re all pulling in the right direction?
Lol. Also no.
At the same time as the government set these lofty targets, they realised that all those homes are going to need a lot of supporting infrastructure, and so launched a whole bunch of ‘Big Build’ projects.
The thing is though, those big projects require a big number of workers, and there’s only so many construction workers to go around.
According to Phil Dwyer, president of the Builders Collective of Australia:
“It’s had a big impact and that, of course, has impacted on the program of building all these houses that the government has targeted. We’ve got no hope in the world of building or meeting those targets”, Dwyer warned.
“It drives up the cost of labour but more importantly, we don’t have enough tradies within the building industry to be able to build these homes”.
So as nice as that target sounds, it’s completely pie in the sky. No one believes we’ll even come close.
That housing shortage isn’t going anywhere.
JG.
ERIC GONZALEZ says
Absolutely brilliant. It’s very obvious but few are seeing it, as it really is.