There’s a lot of hype around Ozempic. For once, the hype is understated.
How much is the weight-control industry in Australia worth? How much is the weight-gain industry worth?
I think this has the potential to be bigger than crypto and bigger than AI.
I’m talking about GLP-1 – the class of drugs that includes Ozempic and Wegovy – the weight-loss drugs.
So far, and these drugs have been through a few years of research and trials, these drugs seem to be quite effective at suppressing appetite.
Trials suggest that users lose about 15-24% of their body weight!
With most of the US and most of Australia at least overweight, if not obese, these results are huge.
If these drugs get more effective, as drugs tend to do, and no nasty side-effects emerge (no guarantees yet), then this has the potential to be a massive game-changer.
The immediate impact is on health. Obesity is connected to all sorts of health issues, and bringing the populations weight down to less-chronic levels will save governments billions.
But it doesn’t stop there.
Because what happens to food sales if suddenly everyone can keep their appetites under control?
Walmart announced last week that they’ve started tracking customers from their pharmacies into their grocery stores. People using Ozempic and Wegovy do consume less. How much less the CEO wasn’t inclined to say.
And then there’s fast food restaurants.
Short interest (bets against the stock) in fast food restaruants like McDonalds have increased by over $800 million in the past thirty days.
Why?
Morgan Stanley surveyed 300 Ozempic users, and 77% of them said they visit fast-food restaurants less often now that they’re on the drug.
That’s a pretty big share.
But where else does this go?
What about travel? It’s estimated that United Airlines would save $80 million a year in fuel costs if its customers lost an average of 10 pounds.
Obesity has been one of the defining trends of the past fifty years, and we might be about to reverse it.
But the really interesting thing for me is that this maybe isn’t just about our hunger for food.
It might be about our hunger for everything.
The Washington Post reports: “For some, these new weight loss drugs also seem to dampen the rewards of addictive substances, whether that’s nicotine, opioids or alcohol.”
In lab tests, mice on an earlier form of synthetic GLP-1 receive a lower dopamine hit from alcohol. Rats are less interested in cocaine. Monkeys with a demonstrated preference for booze (that’s me) drank less. Anecdotal evidence from human users includes reports of reduced nail biting, shopping, and smoking.
Wow. GLP-1 could be an anti-craving drug.
But the entire marketing-complex is built on manipulating cravings.
If you give people control of their cravings and their urges, that changes everything.
I’ve heard some gurus define real freedom as the freedom from our appetites.
Are we about to have a drug for that?
Are we about to have a drug for freedom?
Things are about to get very interesting.
JG.