Let’s step back from the numbers for a bit. What is this year going to be about?
Welcome to the new year everybody.
It’s a pleasure to have you with us. I’m going to do my best to keep you one step ahead of the property market, as I’ve done for the past 4 years. I’m going to try and help you triangulate the keys to your own greatness, as I’ve done with the NoBS blogs for the past three years.
And this year, if you’re keen, I’m going to try and help you navigate the exciting Wild West of the crypto market.
So with this first blog of the new year, I wanted to step back and get a view of the bigger picture. Try and finger the key theme that’s going to hang all these threads together.
Less data, more philosophy.
To do that, I need to introduce you to Francois.
Francois is an old man who owns three VHS recorders.
I don’t actually know him. I’m mates with his son. It was son who told me the story.
At some point around the turn of the millennium, François decided that he was done keeping up with technology. He’d seen a lot of change in his lifetime already. So when the writing was on the wall for VHS, when it was clear that the whole world was moving to DVD, and then beyond, François chose something else.
François chose to stay behind.
“Let the world have their DVDs. I have VHS. I like it. I know how it works. It will do me fine.”
And so when the electronic shops had their final clearance sales of VHS players, François bought three, figuring that three should be enough to see out his days.
To those of us living in the high-definition Netflix universe, François’ decision seems ridiculous. But François doesn’t know any different, so he doesn’t care.
And in a way I can get where he’s coming from. It’s hard work keeping up with the times. And it’s only getting harder as the pace of change accelerates.
So in a way I can respect a decision to just hop off the train. Happiness is relative. François is happy in his Netflix ignorance, so good on him.
So right now, at the start of 2018, it feels to me like we’re at a train station, with the train just about to depart. You’ve got a choice. Do you stay on it, or just hop off.
I’ll respect you either way. Either choice is valid.
2018 will be a year like no other. (Every year is different, but there’s something in the air around 2018).
The investing universe is changing. The most obvious face of that is the crypto-revolution.
It feels to me like Godzilla is slowing emerging from the ocean, and the whole world is in kerfuffle because we’ve caught sight of his nostrils.
But there’s a lot more yet to come.
And this is already impacting all other asset classes. They say people are leaving gold for the safe harbour of Bitcoin (though there isn’t anypart of any of that story that makes any sense to me.)
I think we’ll see it in property too. For a few years we’ve seen a lot of the world’s rogue cash – cash set free by the incredibly easy monetary policy settings around the world – we’ve seen that rogue cash find its way into Australian property.
And for a while there, Aussie property, with the promise of security AND double digit returns was incredibly enticing.
Cyptos don’t give you security but they do give you the promise of triple digit returns!
To rogue international money, that’s going to be an attractive offer.
So the Australian property market is changing too. I think the strategies that worked in recent years might need a bit of an overhaul.
And that’s all before we try to somehow account for the x-factor of exponential technology. The tech landscape is in rapid transition right now. (I mean, they added 4 new elements to the periodic table just in 2017!)
Exponential tech is going to be throwing up all sorts of surprises, and some of those are going to be incredibly profitable.
So this is the reality we have in 2018 – Flux. Everything is in flux. Every asset class, every strategy, even our technological reality.
Staying ahead of this wave will be work. You will have to paddle hard (or read the blogs of someone else who is paddling hard.) You will need to keep an open and mind and be flexible with your game plan.
Or, you can be like François. You can say, you know what, I’ve done pretty well. I get stocks and I get buy and hold property. I’m good. You guys go on ahead. I’m just going to stay here.
And that is totally valid. If you’re in a financial position where you can just do that, why not? Take it easy. You’ve earnt it.
If not – if you want to get on this wave and maybe make some incredible money this year, then I need you to swim hard. There’s a lot to get on top of. There’s a lot to learn.
The only thing I would say is this. It’s easier to stay on the train than it is to get back on later.
If you’re not down with the basics of crypto1.0, crypto 2.0 will be confusing. Crypto 7.0 (which is maybe only 5-10 years down the track) will be totally baffling.
So that’s what I reckon this year will be about. We’ll need to work hard to stay ahead of the curve, but if we can, we could make some serious money.
Like, the kind of returns that we’ve never seen before, or even dreamed was possible.
I’m serious about that. This year could be huge.
So come along for the ride. It’ll be a wild one.