Game theory has a bit to say about how to lift the vaccination rate
So, it seems a lot of people are pinning their hopes on a successful vaccination program – that if we can get the vaccination rate high enough we might be able to put lockdowns behind us.
I’m not sure. I kinda sense a bit of wishfulness there. No one seems to be sure. There’s just a hope, and herd-level vaccination rates are the only hope we have.
… which says a bit about how depressing our situation is.
But look, if the goal is to get vaccinations up, and to bring the ‘vaccine hesitant’ around to the idea, here’s three ideas from the economics sub-discipline of game theory and behavioural economics.
1. Make sure you have enough vaccines.
Ok, this isn’t all that sophisticated, but it’s still a valid point. If you want people to get vaccinated, there needs to be enough vaccines to go around. Right now there’s not. The waiting list is months long in some places.
But yeah, ok, I’m being cute.
1. Don’t pay people for it
Labor came out with a proposal last week to pay everyone $300 to get vaccinated. I’m not sure this is going to work.
It frames it in a bad way. You get paid to do stuff you don’t like. It says that there are valid reasons why you don’t want to be vaxxed, but we’re asking you to put them aside for the sake of 300 bucks.
It just makes the sceptical more sceptical.
And financial incentives like that really depend on the size of the reward relative to incomes. For some people, $300 is going to be very motivating. For someone like me though, it’s neither here nor there.
And I’m certainly not selling my reservations for ‘a round of drinks’.
2. People can’t do maths – leverage that
Rather than paying people – which would be a massively expensive exercise – you might be better off doing a lottery. If you get vaxxed, you get a ticket in a lottery to win a house or something.
This might work because people suck at maths.
“Those things work because people tend to overestimate the chance they will win the lottery,” said Richard Holden, an economics professor at the University of NSW.
But still, you have the same problem with a payment. When you offer to pay for people to put aside their reluctance, you are saying that there are good and valid reasons for that reluctance.
And maybe there are, but that’s certainly not the official line I’m hearing.
And so it just doesn’t work that well.
The evidence actually shows that. A University of Queensland statistician, Adrian Barnett, recently conducted an experiment with several other academics on 1628 unvaccinated people in the US to determine the most effective way to convince them to get vaccinated.
They found 22 per cent were motived by an offer of cash, 14 per cent by a lottery and 16 per cent by information about vaccines’ benefits.
So yeah. What’s that? 36% will take the money. That’s not going to get us there.
3. People are regret avoiders
The stat I keep hearing is that you are much more likely to suffer at the hands of the virus itself than at the hands of any vaccine side-effects.
This doesn’t matter. It’s not persuasive.
People will weight these things very differently because of the agency they have in the situation.
People don’t want to make choices they might regret. If you get vaxxed, and something happens, you will naturally blame yourself. You will regret it a lot.
But if you do nothing, and you get Covid, then it’s just fate. You won’t blame yourself. You won’t have any regrets. Or they’ll be different regrets anyway.
So people will look at these two scenarios very differently.
Actually, now that I say that, I realise this is a case for mandatory vaccination. If it becomes mandatory, then it takes the decisions away from people, and most people will be happier about that.
Yes, people are funny.
Get Clear
But look, at the end of the day, it still feels like a dog’s breakfast. Pollies are pleading with us to come forward and get vaccinated, even though the vaccines don’t exist, and there’s so many messages I can’t keep track of them all.
Sigh.
There’s still a long road ahead, whatever happens.
JG.
ERIC GONZALEZ says
Mandatory Vaccination? It goes against your whole article. Mandatory would have worked right in the beginning, with enough Vaccines. But now, all we see when reading Newscorp News.com.au is of Anti-Vaxxers changing their tune on their deathbed – people will think Vaccine and Death in the same sentence? Truly awful. The other story is about Vaccine side effects including Death.
So now we have two sides to the story with the words and ideas of Vaccine and Death up against Vaccine and Death. Mandatory Vaccination is political suicide by now because of the feelings in our communities. Yes, we are asked to tolerate a few deaths by Vaccine to save all the rest of the people, but no one was to be the loser. And possible Death by Covid? Well, we have lockdowns, contact tracers, great personal hygiene, and we are prepared to sit it out and wait, because what the hell are they putting in the Vaccine? First time that this other side of Vaccines has ever be put up on Main Central News – death and maiming by vaccines. But it has occurred before, HPV in girls, with Deaths and maimings. Stuff that, leave it to someone else. In QLD, we prefer lockdowns, masks all the time, no street protests because some anti-protesters will come out in force and ‘crush’ the street protesters, but the Police have already said that they will do it themselves. Australia, take your hands off QLD !! We have Annastacia Palascusck (Premier) and Dr Jeannette Young (CMO). Annastacia could win another election straight away of a huge majority, or at any time. She has our trust and she “shuts the Borders”, keeps us safe, and we like that. Signed, QLD.
Roger says
Probably an ignorant question, but my understanding of the vaccine is that you are injected with a small amount of the virus. Does this mean that you are subsequently contagious? So do you need to quarantine after being vaccinated and if not why not?
Ruth says
Some of the Chinese vaccines use the whole virus, inactivated. Original influenza technology in the 1930s. Rejected by the west as thought to give short term immunity only and therefore more risk of mutation.
The western vaccines astrazeneca, pfizer, moderna etc are an injection of DNA or RNA of part of the spike protein of the virus only. So you are not being injected with the entire virus. Your own cells then reproduce that little bit of protein to stimulate an antibody response. That way if you contract the virus your body is primed to defend itself.
Hope that helps Roger. You’re not being injected with the whole virus, just a small part of template to make the spike protein. So you can’t be contagious because your body does not have the whole template to make the entire virus. No need to quarantine.
I studied genetic engineering a very long time ago!
Ana says
Are you a scientist? Do you know that all of these vaccines were made with a née technology to survive inside our own imune response? One of them has a nano size jacket to protect it to produce the same proteine that the live virus does and the one that causes all the damage to your imune system. There isn’t any monitoring of the side effects which includes death and I have 2 family members that stubbornly took and went on to de second doses. One died last week at 34 years, a healthy young woman with no diagnosed health conditions, with a stroke. She was found dead because she was advised that the side effects were temporarily and thou maybe painful or fever but not harmful, my niece survived because she actually went to emergency after 3 days post second dose and was blessed because was on the first stage of pneumonia. This vaccines no mater what manufacture was distributed against the recommended minimum time (2 years at least) of trial and lose study of reactions and efficacy against the virus. The ones that takes it are treated less than a lab rat because the lab rats at least are serving for the purpose of the evaluation of the efficacy of the vaccine but the vaccinated people are not even been monitored appropriately if at all. My niece admitted to hospital was diagnosed as a covid case and the one that died as a simple case of a stroke and that was that. Go figure. I’m not an anti-Vax as all my children were fully vaccinated as mandated and also myself. This isn’t an approved, tested or studied vaccine, therefore should be treated as a hazardous substance.
ERIC GONZALEZ says
Ana, I am sorry to read your post and it must be very hard to see first hand what is never really shown in the news and is really happening. Every day, the News is about an unvaccinated person who died from Covid, only. You and I are very close to being called “Antivaxxers’ and that our “sources have been “fact-checked and proven to be wrong”. What can we do from here? Put it in Facebook in our pages, until Facebook removes it – “Fact-checked independently and proven to be wrong”. Social media and news will stifle any bad news by independent persons. Thank you for sharing Ana..
Rebekah says
Brilliant response. Thank you.
V says
Remember, Roger, that we are now more than 200 years away from the first vaccine used by Jenner, so we know how to not infect with a vaccine. This is not hard.
As Ruth said, most of COVID vaccines use a small part of virus’ shell or coding for it. It is not the virus that causes disease.
One of Chinese vaccines uses killed viruses, but they are really dead and cannot multiply. It is very easy to kill the virus when it is in the tube and to check for this.
Ruth says
Jon I think giving incentives is a dumb idea not just because of the reasons you mention, but because why stop at $300? People may delay thinking if they wait long enough they will get a bigger prize. Blackmail: OK, I’ll get the jab, but give me $5000 first.
I’ve had my jabs and felt an odd sense of relief afterwards. Feel fine.
Ruth says
Final word I promise. I said to my neighbour how strange it was that we were just given triple antigen and polio vaccines as children as a matter of course. Australia has very high testing criteria and I think it’s worth the risk. My old neighbour said triple vaccine and polio were just accepted and said in the old days people saw first hand what polio etc looked like and knew they didn’t want to contract these diseases! I would much rather face covid with my body prepped for it. I figure if I can’t handle the vaccine, I’m not likely to be able to handle covid.
I trust my doctor as well and he thinks they’re fine. I suppose those hesitant for any reason should ask their doc.
V says
This is exactly what everyone has to think and do for the benefit of oneself and the country.
V says
So, if nothing else works, the best strategy to vaccinate the country is to make people scared to death by seeing thousands of infected and suffering and dead bodies all around. This is, obviously, the strategy that Gladys is following.
Rebekah says
Both sides of the story should be shown – the figures, deformities, suffering and death caused by the vaccinations, along with real data on risk analysis (risk of taking -v- not taking vaccination) as this really is in the experimental stage. Especially for children. Then people could really make informed decisions..
Amy says
Let people choose their vaccine!
In other words, have all vaccines available.
bev says
Why are we pushing untested vax when the
recovery rates are. 99.8% and. 98. ,2% for over 80’s? There are several well tested and documented protocols that reduce duration and severity. and doctors have been banned from using them. Only a Vax can be used to fight this pandemic.?
This is not about a virus.
There are hundreds of groups out there of people with dreadful Vax injuries..
You cannot question or you get banned or deleted from most social media platforms.
PCR tests are not reliable,
The amount of false positives is ridiculous. media is supressing anything that isn’t in line with the party line.
I am completely at a loss how none of the above doesn’t trouble anyone.
And now I’ll expect to be derided for my statement.
Eric Gonzalez says
Bev, you won’t be derided here for your statement because you bring up a lot of important facts, and I have enough experience and qualifications to back you up. Yes, I am troubled by what you bring up. The survival rate against Covid, even without the Vax is very good. The hundreds of groups of dreadfully injured Vaccinated people who are too scared to speak up, or thinkers like you, but you still did bring it up but you expect to be derided because whistle blowers always get hard done by. Every day in the media, another Anti-vaxxer recants on their death bed. Media suppression and more points that you bring up, I agree with all of what you say, and I am a scientist, in the medical field and biomedical area. I have been researching antiviral drug treatments and they are nearly there, but a lot of these drugs are in the public domain or used historically such as Ivormectin with no patents, which is No profit. However, a new antiviral called Molnupiravir is showing promise – Google: “News Medical Life Sciences + Molnupiravir shows promise”.
Rebekah says
Thank you Bev. It’s refreshing to see someone educating themselves on both sides of the argument and looking at the bigger picture, rather than at the propaganda.
Vit C, Vit D, zinc
https://rumble.com/vksgnm-professor-ian-brighthope-this-is-the-health-advice-we-should-be-listening-t.html
Truth Seeker says
I was going to say the same thing Bev brought up. If the Experimental Gene Therapy (not vaccine) was truly safe and effective (ahhh, don’t you just love propaganda and mind control memes), and Covid (the ‘not novel’ flu rebranded as has been proven by mass spec analysis of 1500 samples) was truly a death sentence, then there would be no issue.
But the reverse is true, the percentage of severe adverse effects and death from the ‘jab’ are multiples of those who ride out getting (Covid the Flu) – and to fact checkers, look at the true stats! If you take vit d and zinc and c and other immune boosting support, your natural immunity is 1000x superior as has been attested to by countless top doctors and scientists worldwide. They have also shown near and even 100% success rate with early home treatment (but big pharma’s corrupt shills have either censored or legislated against them… gee, I wonder why??). I’ve have seen countless videos of people ruined for life now who took the jab.
As to effective? Well, even the the mRNA inventor himself is freaking out that all the most ‘jabbed’ countries (ie Gibraltor at 99% – https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1415989536933490688.html) are having the worst outbreaks anywhere because their immune system is now a spike protein factory. The jabbed are the ones transmitting this! Mark my words, 19% of jabbed will die year one, 33% by year two, 90% year three and 100% year four.
You can have your $300 thank you very much. I for one will kill anyone who comes near me with this bio-weapon eugenicists fauci/gates spent billions on. See bit.ly/3vLjNqj
Rebekah says
https://rumble.com/vksgnm-professor-ian-brighthope-this-is-the-health-advice-we-should-be-listening-t.html
Pablo says
Thanks Truth Seeker
Well laid out, if only this information was presented through the media instead of the propergander we’re subjected too each night on all channels, even Adolf Hitler would be impressed with Fauci’s roll out of this unprecedented attack on humanity.
While our brother’s and sister’s in NSW and VIC are enduring another forced controlled lockup under our elected? leaders, it seems the only way out is for all of us to rise up!!
Remember friends United we stand Divided we fall !!
V says
Pablo, what do you know about Adolf Hitler?
Pablo says
Well only that Bill gates is the reincarnation of Adolf
Thanks Truth Seeker
bit.ly/3vLjNqj
Is pure GOLD!