Three property experts fail to get there message right, while Trump is out on his own.
So a bit of a mixed bag this week. The things that stuck out for me this week weren’t so much in the data, but in the stories people are telling.
Propaganda is a fine art, even in property, and here are three complete fails and one total home run.
The first is from Real Estate legend John McGrath:
Have you noticed that the speculation has started? The property market is “grinding to a halt”. The boom is over. The banks have lent too much. The bubble is going to burst…
The key is not to panic…
… The two most likely eventualities are as follows:
- The pace of growth in property prices will slow down but not stop. Property prices will keep growing but at a lesser rate per year.
- We have a minor correction, where the market will do as it has done before and give back about half of the prior year’s growth, so that would be around 5%…
… If you are in the market to buy, don’t put it off because you think prices will plunge – it never happens that way. Take a sensible measured approach, set a budget and buy the right property for you.
If you are thinking of selling, now’s the time. It feels to me like we’re at, or close, to the peak of this cycle, so if you want to fully capitalise on this boom, now is the time to sell.
Ok, so in short, don’t believe the hype. The market is not going to crash, and now is the perfect time to buy, and the perfect time to sell.
Only a real estate agent could pull that off with a straight face. I’d agree that the negative press is overblown (again!), but I’m not convinced I see prices falling or even stalling.
This “peak of the cycle” business is classic real estate fodder. What better way to convince people to sell than tell them that the market has peaked?
But you also need buyers, who will just sit on the sidelines if prices are falling, and so we have the logical double-twist with half-pike that says prices will fall, but only a little, creating the perfect time to buy, the perfect time to sell, and the perfect time to pay a real estate agent a nice fat commission.
Pull the other one John.
The second fail is from Macquarie Bank. They reckon the Bank Levy will have a “disproportionate and unintended consequences” on their operations and they may have to move offshore.
I think the “I’m taking my bat and ball and going home” argument can pack some weight if you’re a well-loved Aussie icon, like Holden or Vegemite. But who is going to cry for Macquarie?
All it says it that your only interest in Australia and Australians is purely financial, and you’ve got a bit of a glass jaw.
Don’t let the door hit you on the arse on the way out.
The third fail was from the apartment lobby, through Sue Jong, chief operations officer of Chinese real estate portal Juwai. They were complaining about the recent changes in NSW that slugged foreign investors with extra fees. She said:
“This policy could decrease foreign investment in NSW new property by as much as 15 per cent.
With every misguided new policy proposal, foreign investment will decrease along with new housing construction, housing affordability and construction employment.
For every unit a foreign buyer purchases, they enable developers to build four more homes for first-time buyers and investors.”
I’m not sure about that last stat. Sounds a little suss to me. But one thing I could tell you is that if I owned a highrise apartment in Sydney, I’d be praying for a 15% fall in foreign demand, since, by law, that demand must go into new dwellings.
And adding more dwellings to an already oversupplied market can only lead to more downward pressure on prices.
I think there is real anger in the community about the way some shoddy highrises have been thrown together, have flooded the market, and have neglected the needs of locals just to serve foreign investors.
In most people’s minds, Ms Jong just said the government’s policy was a good idea.
Fail.
Lastly, and just because I couldn’t resist having a go at it, was Trump’s ‘Covfefe’ gaffe.
In case you missed it, apparently, Donald Trump forgot to lock his phone, and arse-tweeted the free-world.
The internet, of course, went into melt-down.
The narrative, of course, is that Trump is unhinged and unpredictable, and can’t manage basic things, like his phone.
But am I the only one who thinks it was deliberate?
The tweet was left up for hours, even though the White House would have known within minutes what had happened.
And what does it say about Trump? It says Trump isn’t filtering himself. He’s not passing his messages threw focus groups, before spewing up the most banal version possible to the listening public.
For Trump’s base, he’s just reinforcing the message that he’s “authentic” and “not a politician.” They go nuts for that stuff.
And what was the complete sentence there? “Despite all the negative press…” That will mean different things depending on who you are. If you’re part of his base, he’s talking about a vindictive press that’s out to slander the President. If you’re not, then it has been a pretty gruesome month in the news.
So no matter who you are, here’s a funny word to break things up a bit: covfefe.
It’s genius right?
If only he’d use his talents for good, not evil.
What do you make of it?
ron goddard says
hi jonno,
first, a really good article you wrote. it shows just how dogmatic forces within can be. the market of course will find its own level, be it up or down. jonno i have NEVER, as a real estate agent, been a
party to the sort of b.s. you write about: an agent conning customers into rash decisions. that is a very broad brush that you paint with indeed. my actions have always been to serve the most important person in a real estate transaction to the best of my ability: the vendor/owner. without him/her one cannot operate. please cancel me off your horror list of r/e agents. i take that as a personal affront. and considering what you have been reported for its a bit strange coming from you. i will not elaborate on here because you cannot defend yourself rapidly. we can have a very personal discussion of course; your place or mine.
now foreign investment. if our government allows all sorts of aliens to purchase our country what are they gonna do, the aliens? they are gonna purchase of course. so when i hear ‘people’ (mostly dumb asses) complain about such matters for goodness sake address it to the people who allow it not at the buyers. our governments forever have been allowing foreign investment so its not a new kid on the block! and b.t.w. all construction is a drag on the economy. we import almost all of our products that go into construction in one way or another, and that is one of the reasons this country and others are in the proverbial poo!. we are a service industry country with primary produce as a buffer. but when does the primary run out? lets not kid ourselves.
cheers, ron
ron goddard says
oh, sorry. trump. yes our mate in washington. he has very broad shoulders and a big mouth. and a heart too. but, he is conning everybody, maybe even you jonno. and why not? he has zillions in the bank and he doesn’t give a rat’s arse about what anybody thinks. and why should he? most people, according to the jews, are ‘goyems’, dumb ones. why else would we allow islam to flourish all over the world. if they won’t conform get rid of them. how many times do we listen to, or read about the ‘authorities’ acknowledging that they ‘knew’ of them, but did nothing. how safe does that make you feel? so they whack it back on us when we fly, go to a sporting event or whatever, the interminable searches. these so called authorities are letting us down, and along comes mealy mouth malcolm defending the fed police etc. and making all sorts of excuses for the mess that the western world has gotten itself into.
at least tony a. has said it out loud. a bit like trump. then we get offended by what he says. oh dear.
give me a break. lets take our country back!!! get rid of the shit within. we can even have volunteer politicians, with travel allowances and meal allowances and accommodation costs of course. what sort of people would we get? honest ones?
cheers,
ron
.
V says
Was it a poem or just an example of non-existing punctuation?
Maurice says
Great article Jon. Good reading, thanks. As for Trump, somewhat clumsy and crude (for a politician – which he is not, thank goodness), somewhat unpredictable, but real and well meaning. I like the guy. Good thing.
Andy Staynor says
What “evil” has or is Trump using his talents for? I don’t hear/see any such thing….
ron goddard says
omg V!! this is not poetry. i do write a lot to asian people and capital letters to them are offensive. if you look carefully you will see many fullstops, commas, semi colons and colons etc. etc. etc. maybe you eat more carrots eh? btw..are you asian? just a footnote about real estate prices. if you own lotsa r/e you will always want prices to go up, so your mindset is fixed on rising prices. if you don’t own nothin’ you will forecast(hope) that prices will fall. simple. so go get some r/e and start hoping for a price rise. only one problem: mr. market will govern all.
V says
“don’t own nothin'” – ?
ron goddard says
‘v’ you are a genius. “you got plenty of nothin’,and nothin’s plenty for you. you got no lock on the door? that’s the way to be.” do you know where you might have heard that?