I’ve been getting messages all night about the US election. So here’s a quick couple of thoughts for people who have been following it with me.
- If you’re looking for something witty to post on twitter or facebook, how about: “So America just elected a glorified toilet-brush as President. Whatever it takes to clean the bowl of American politics, I guess.”
- Polling is busted. Pollsters missed Trump by the exact same margin as they missed Brexit. What does that say about Hanson’s chances? I’ve heard 10% in QLD. You could probably double it.
- Markets have wigged out. Why? Trump was behind in the polls, but not by a large margin. Trump was still a contender. And yet his victory is playing out like some sort of black swan. What’s the lesson? Markets are messy and driven by emotions. And they just can’t price schism events.
- Our media channels (including social media) have become personal echo chambers. We see the facts we already believe and the opinions we already agree with. A lot of people I know literally cannot understand why anyone voted for Trump. The answer is that Trump voters are living in a totally different echo chamber. If you tune in to a narrow selection of media, and especially if social media is your only news source, then you need to know that you’re getting a very partisan view of reality. This is a relatively new phenomenon.
- If you’re bummed about Trump’s victory (and I get that), I’d encourage you to take a little heart. From a progressive perspective, I genuinely don’t think President Trump will be any worse than any past Republican President, and probably a lot better. People talk about racism and bigotry and all that, but as someone following what he actually says, and as someone who makes a point of spending time in different echo chambers, Trump is not the reactionary he is painted out to be. I’m not saying he’s going to usher in some sort of Libertarian Renaissance, but I really don’t think it will be as bad as a lot of my friends are imagining today.
- To my mind, money-politics is the biggest threat to democracy and western civilisation. (How’s that new job working out for you Mr Robb. Getting paid in Yuan?) Sanders was talking about getting money out of politics. Trump was talking about getting money out of politics. Hilary wasn’t. I don’t know what chances Trump has of actually following through and succeeding. I’d give it 30% tops. But even that long shot is enough to put a spring in my step today. Peaceful revolutions don’t happen that often.
- To me this election has really brought home the power of stories. Trump as incompetent buffoon had real staying power, even as the evidence massed up against it. (Remember how he took down the Bush dynasty and made Fox news his little bitch?) People wanted it to be true, and they wanted it so much that couldn’t see what was actually happening. As a result, everyone underestimated him. Democrats are in tears and markets are freaking out. Stories are the way we interpret reality, and they stick around long after the facts have left the room. This helps us understand why markets often overshoot in both directions.
- This shakes everything up. Everything. Right across the world. That’s only a bad thing if you think the system was working quite nicely already. I’m not one of those people.
- Policies will not feature heavily in western elections again. Their evolution into an emotion-driven contest of stories is complete.
- Is it too soon to say, “I told you so”? Remember I picked out the Trump comet bearing down on us way back in September last year. I was there way before it was cool.
Love to know your thoughts. The avalanche of punditry has started already. Take it with a grain of salt.
No one knows what they’re talking about. Especially me.
What do you make of President Trump?
Dad of Doom says
America just took the red pill.
Jon Giaan says
Totally. And still the best avatar name ever, Dad.
Mark says
Point number 9 is spot on. Not looking forward to our next election. Both sides have learnt a lot about fear politics.
I think this like with the Regan/Thatcher era will be the start of a conservative golden age. A blank cheque to get rich quick excess. The biggest losers will be science and the environment. Trump has already started assigning climate skeptics into environment and energy positions.
Trump has called global warming “bullshit” and he has said he would “cancel” the Paris global warming accord and roll back President Obama’s executive actions on climate change (ClimateWire, May 27).
So while America is set for 8 years of boom growth with a lot of hedge fund managers making a disgusting amount of money the earth will pick up the bill.
Ian says
Agree fully Jon. Trump is vastly more intelligent than Hillary. He was trained to a high level in his tertiary marketing education and has become one of the very best marketers in the world, so he held his highly knowledgeable line in his strategy. An old adage in politics is: Do not believe what they say, watch what they do, particularly in the Budget allocations each year. Nothing Trump has said may hold true now. He was marketing. He is also one of the top negotiators in the world, successfully trained in big business negotiations. Bernie Sanders would have won if the primaries had not been distorted. We now have to see what Trump will do. He is not beholden to Middle Eastern religions, nor to the big business end of the Republican machine. He is not dependent on them for his future place in the world. He may just want to be elected again so he may put the sword through a few of the monumental fraudsters involved in the GFC, and garner widespread middle-America support. As you say there are a lot of positive possibilities. Now we need to watch precisely what he does.
Doreen says
Actually, Trump isn’t more intelligent than Hillary. Their respective IQ figures can be found if you look online. He’s more cunning though and prepared to be more ruthless.
Tom says
It probably boiled down to better targeting. CRH took her base for granted. Trump targeted them, her weakest link.
Dale says
I quote – “Trump as incompetent buffoon” – even ignoring the error due to a lack of proof reading, your comment is silly. Donald Trump, a man with no political experience, took on the Clinton Machine, the DNC, the GOP leadership, the Obama administration, the IRS, the Justice Department, the State Department, FB, Google, the MSM, the left, the conservatives, the corporate elites, academia, the entertainment industry and virtually every 1 percenter in the US – AND HE WON! I think you need to change your echo chamber.
Jon Giaan says
There’s no typo. That’s what I’m labelling the narrative and as I said a couple of times in the piece, the narrative is wrong. “Remember how he took down the Bush dynasty and made Fox news his little bitch?)” You should read more of my stuff. It sounds like you would like it. 😉
Laurie Benson says
Hi Jon,
When i had a look at the election results map, you can drill down to the county level voting results. Its interesting to see at the base level that Trumps support comes from the rural non city areas whereas Clinton support was from many of the regional cities.
I am ready for a change.
Emily Reid says
Hilary had more Votes than Donald Trump. She was more popular, she just didn’t win. It’s the American system.http://www.billboard.com/articles/news/7572638/electoral-college-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-2016-president-election-popular-vote
KiwiAl says
Yes. As of tonight, according to Google: She got 59,814,018 votes. Trump got 59,611,678. Difference: 202,340. That’s “Democracy”.
Helena Smirnis says
it comes down to number of states not votes.
Ben Everingham says
Great read Jon. I agree with your thoughts and position on this one.
ron goddard says
jonno…media manipulation simply stopped working. trump is not a buffoon he comes across as a very confident, maybe arrogant man who appeals to the common denominator. the polls were rigged(surprise) so therefore the result was a surprise. anybody who has sympathy for h.r.c. deserves to be put in a psychiatric ward. at last he, trump, will pull back on military spending..the blight of the planet..americans here americans there, blasting anyone and everyone who gets in the way. he has already extended the hand of friendship to the russian president, putin. now if you think that is wrong, like milions of idiots do, well you have to be a warmonger. and a deadbrain as well. now at the moment there is a flotilla and airlift of over 300,000 un forces coming off the russian border to america. they will arrive very very soon. why? well you go figure. this war is not over. trump won the presidency but not the country. he won the first battle, but the elites are lining up for more ‘stuff’, hence the 300,000 and lots and lots of trigger happy isis insurgents already in usa, bought in by obama, who will be in a short time exercising his power as military dictator. martial law? yes baby. you gotta see it(or read about it). will it really happen?. well the jews will not give up without a fight and trump knows this. he is preparing rapidly because he knows what is coming. will the m.s.m. report it correctly?. who knows. between now and december 19th is gonna be a whizbang!!
KiwiAl says
Ron,
“media manipulation simply stopped working.”
Are you sure? What is your evidence?
Yes, Trump is a ballsy maverick, but he has no political experience. It COULD all turn to custard, which is likely just what “they” want. That’s very similar to how Hitler and the Fascists took over Germany. Stir up huge public resentment against an identifiable scapegoat… then, provide the solution.
The Hitler Rallies, the bold rhetoric. Hitler even made sure his hair was always the same… Trump has his brand of hair too.
The parallels here (down to the hair) are a little frightening. To say the least.
But Hitler was very wooden, very contrived. Maybe that was simply appropriate for the time and place – 1930’s Germany.
Trumpie at least is a man of many faces.
KiwiAl says
Sorry, another thought just occurred to me.
Maybe, what this (the Trump Phenomenon) really is, is a big Research Project. To find out “just how far you can go” and still get the people to accept it. Like Trump said “You can grope women…” (What he really meant was “I can grope women…” but it doesn’t matter.) Is it just a huge testing of the limits?
Or maybe, it’s to try and dig up the truth of what the American people really hate – the thing that can be used to unite them so strongly against, that they will willingly give up all their other rights. (I guess we’re well past that, so what is it?) Must be the next step…
Tom says
Good one Mate,
With millions of rounds of the internationally outlawed ‘Dum-Dum’, designed-to-kill, hollow-nosed ammunition supplied by Bush to all the civil defense forces, it’s no wonder the NRA is so powerful with those who fear their own Government and its Police Forces. Their Government actually expects serious civil unrest and has prepared for it. Will Trump set the dogs on the crowds?
Fortunately, we have very little to fear from our police – unless we cross them.
NoNewsIsGoodNews says
Must have missed something, How did Obama bring in ISIS insurgents? and how is he going to put in Martial law? This is the USA you are talking about, where Democrats and Republican go back an forth on all major decisions multiple times just like Australian politics. And throw in the Jews, while you’re at it. My, my, so much ranting and biased views coming out to vent!!.
Rudolf says
Just as someone said yesterday….”The sun will still rise in the morning”,
I believe reality will, one way or the other, tune the policies of political leaders.
World wide financial manipulation & corruption will ensure our lived will basically not change.
I for one, in my own little way, have already taken advantage of the fear & panic in the
share market 🙂 I like fear & panic in the share market Lol.
Tai4MC says
Jon.
Before the Election, some ‘hacker groups’ were threatening to interfere.
Do you have any news that the hackers were ‘neutralised’
Henry says
I took notice of your comments last year and agreed with them. Hence a Trump Presidency is not really a surprise. Well done on calling it.
Also I particularly like your 4th point and feel we are all guilty of one eyed views fed by single echo chambers…. Any chance to consider contrary views should be taken seriously.
Andrew says
G’day Jon…
I had to read all the way to the bottom before I got to the bit where you said you predicted this victory last year… I commend you on not starting your blog with “I told you so”…! haha. I also thought he would be able to win although I did start to think he might have done it when the tapes and rumours of his “abilities with the ladies” came out…even tho they were 10 years old…
I watched a bit of the coverage on ch9 yesterday arvo when it was starting to appear the Trump victory was inevitable… Laurie Oaks was almost crying at the time and then said something like the media was at fault… WTF? Sorry, Laurie, but aren’t you part of the media???? Everyone thought it was great to poke fun at him, but now there is shock horror… To me, it wasn’t such a surprise. The downtrodden are stating to get a voice.
Lesson to the media…. Don’t hang shit on Pauline Hanson too much or you might just get another surprise… There are more people who feel aligned to her ideologies than what the polls suggest…!!!
Keep up the good work, Jon…
Tom says
Good advice Andrew.
Brought up as a Taswegian, I know what it is like to feel like the underdog in Aus, perpetually overshadowed by Melbourne in our case and to a lesser extent by Sydney (but they played some Bums-up type of football, so they didn’t count.)
Queensland was OK in our assessment – at least some of them knew what real football was!!! Also they were also underdogs, overpowered by the two big States.
As a kid, seasonal workers came down from the cane fields to the apple orchards and regaled us with stories of how great the land of banana benders was.
Early in my career, I moved to Queensland, expecting to find like minded people. Imagine my surprise upon finding entrenched racist attitudes pretty well as the norm – at least that’s how it came across to me. They had a strong anti-establishment, “Us & Them” attitude. In subsequent periods of living up north, that impression has been reinforced each time. Attitudes of looking down on most Aboriginals, who are not really members of society, and more recently of fearing Asians whom they do not understand and so fear, are commonplace, in various shades of grey. It may be politically incorrect to mention this, but I am not surprised in the least to see Hansonism flourishing in that environment. It would probably not get much traction in the big Vic & NSW urban areas, but anywhere we have people with an axe to grind with the powers that be, the ‘One Nation’ appeal to the lower instincts of fear and envy will haul in the votes. So expect them to be a force to be dealt with for many years to come. Their followers are the Aussie version of Brexit and Trumpism.
John says
Yes Jon well done opining the real driver at the outset – its been how Trump says more than what he says all along. It has made understanding his rise and rise dead simple.
And I particularly like your echo chamber analogy, but the big downside is reflected in the comments here…in the Murdoch echo chamber that is Oz, the Aussie public are just about the most ill-informed on the planet for climate change, which to any rational person is the only issue at stake in the long term. Everything else is noise. And we are pretty much out of time if we want our grandchildren to have anything like the quality of life we enjoyed. Trump harks back the 19th C industrialists…pollution is a sign of prosperity = good. Not actually so good at all.
Wendy Underwood says
I am glad Trump was elected think he will reopen the discussion on building Australia instead of selling it. Australia was one of the only places on earth that could have been totally independent
ron goddard says
jonno, i had not heard of the donald until you mentioned him a while ago. now i know about him. a self made billionaire and other many things. i just in fact read his biography. he is an amazing man. he made his money in the time honoured fashion..sheer hard work. he has funded many worthwhile causes which the ‘unbiased media’ must have overlooked. now look at h.r.c. holy shit..sex scandals, pedaphilia, saudi arabian money by the truck load etc. etc. etc. well maybe you will be as rich as trump one day. go for it.
now the banks of america….do you think for one moment the jews will maintain status quo? be ready for an almighty depression. it is 85 years since the last one and we are way way overdue for the nextie. i am gonna save my silver and gold for the bargains. stuff the fiat money. what i am saying is that it doesn’t what trump or anyone else does, the world finances are too far gone and the piper has to be paid. and beware of the four dreaded words : ‘in the national interest’. i hope they, the government, doesn’t draw in a another brisbane line :-(. . oh and jonno, thank you for giving us racilcitrent mushrooms a chance to air our opinions on here.
Tom says
And don’t forget the time when Arkansas Governor Clinton arranged for the defense radar to be turned off while his mates imported a load of South American drugs.
Doreen says
Yeah – I’m bummed out. Not because I was misled about the story of Trump as a buffoon (I also thought he would win, and I recognise his capabilities), but because of the stories he propagated and nurtured and sold with his superhuman marketing skills, to vulnerable people looking for a saviour. See, these stories allowed the dark side (we all have it) of a whole bunch of frightened, uninformed people to get the bit between their teeth and empower themselves with hatred and vicious belief in patent lies – researched, fact-checked and obvious lies that fed the fear and stirred up the hate, let the genie out of the bottle and set the dogs on big components of the American population. So yes, I’m bummed. I will never believe it’s a good thing for someone with so few moral values to lead a country, to be shaping people’s aspirations, to be building the frameworks of a society. Donald Trump has the ego that all politicians need, but he’s also narcissistic and amoral to a frightening degree. That is, he’ll use anything and anybody to get what he wants. Dangerous – as an operator, as a model, as someone who needs to think and lead for the common good.
Wozza says
Here here, go Trump !! Glad he got in too. It’s about time the establishment got a shake-up cause it sure hasn’t been representing me as a classic middle class citizen – all my life! So if he get the Govt back in for the people and of the people then he’s just saved the world from classic tyranny and totalitarianism. Like a true business person he’s listened to the market, the people and I believe he’s going to do the very best he can for the people. I think this is going to change the establishment forever, and for the better long-term.
And John I don’t agree with the social media comments. Most of the people I have around me are so ill informed because they have their head in mainstream lying fake Hollywood media. They’re the ones not getting the full picture because they don’t research different sources on the net. The future is the alternative media and I think it’s going to explode especially after the Wikileaks revelations.
Andrew Dunsmore says
He’s got guts, that’s for sure. And even bigger balls. To take on something as time consuming and selfless as the US Presidency, to backbench his own interests needless to say, shows that he has heart, a deep love for his country, (Do you really think he’s gone to this much effort to run it into the ground?) and a level of compassion for his American people that is unflinching. All it seems he wants to do is make the country great again and that’s not a bad thing now is it? Coming up Trumps…..
KiwiAl says
I completely agree. He has balls, and guts. And, by what I’ve heard of his parenting, he’s a great father. Look at his daughter Ivanka. Feet on the ground, head properly attached, not a stupid floozie at all. I’d be proud to have a daughter like her.
I
just wonder how long it will be before “they” assassinate him. That,
and not last night / today will be a truly sad day. (I predicted 2
months earlier. I guess I’ll stick with that.)
But Hey, let’s not forget, he doesn’t get sworn in until 20 January 2017. A lot can happen…
GingersRule says
Love the meme I saw floating around saying Orange is the New Black over the faces of Trump and Obama.
Alyce says
Well said. The most important lesson to be learnt out of this – is
for the media. The treatment and portarayl of Trump was disgusting.
All of Clintons skeletons were brushed over, or not mentioned at all
(with the exception of Fox News, as you say). The reason most people
are so upset is because all they’ve been fed is left-wing commentary and
snippets of Trump taken entirely out of context.
With the
Waleeds of the world you can’t have a conservative view point without
being viciously attacked for it. The media said Trump couldn’t happen.
They missed the mark and they are completely out of touch with their
audience.
KiwiAl says
Hi Alyce,
Don’t forget what the media actually is, and how it operates.
The media is owned (and, therefore CONTROLLED) by very wealthy people… The Murdoch’s and their ilk.
The media’s target is the average person, everyone who ISN’T wealthy. The Voters.
Generally, it’s that simple.
Fortunately for us, this time round, “they” miscalculated. (Maybe!) To be honest, I’m not sure about which way they wanted it to go. Maybe this is Exactly what they wanted.
But one thing is sure. The constant swapping back and forth, Left-Right-Left-Right… sure keeps the punters thinking “It’s working.” We’ve just had two terms of Left, so guess what?
KiwiAl says
Hey Jon,
We’ve been hearing a lot about the whining Hillary/Democrat party / UN supporters who have finally dragged themselves off their comfy couches to go out protesting that Trump won. They make me a little sick at the best of times, with their deluded PC lies and BS.
Anyway, a lot of them have been boasting that they are now going to leave America and move to Canada, Australia or New Zealand. Canada’s Immigration Server crashed. New Zealand’s has seen a massive increase in traffic. I guess Australia’s has seen a lot more. Even my wife has had messages from one African-American, asking about house prices here. He says “Too Expensive!”
Of course, it isn’t going to happen. They’re Dreamin’!
1: What makes them think these other countries will accept them?
Obviously, they really are a big, lame bunch of limp-wristed Quitters. These are the people most controlled by fear and negativity. Even fear of change scares them. They would obviously rather have the familiar bad they have now than the possibility of better. The funny thing is, the apparent recent threats of nuclear war (repeated and reinforced by Hillary) don’t seem to worry them. I don’t get that.
Maybe Trump won’t be able to deliver, but why not give him a democratically elected chance?
Of course the Trump haters won’t leave the US.
2: To get into another equal or better country, they have to have resources. They need money. They need a valuable career, or at least skills the intended recipient country needs. What country REALLY wants a bunch of broke, unskilled quitters? The Refugee con (“Yeah, seriously, I’m a Trump Refugee”) isn’t gonna cut it. So, the chances of them making it are very low.
3: On top of that, if they own a house (this is the bit that will interest you Jon), they will almost certainly need to sell it. So, let’s say half a million homes suddenly hit the US Property market. YEEEE-HAAARRR!!! Down go the US house prices again… UP, Up, up go ours!
Of course they won’t leave. But there might be a few pickings to be had.
Geoff Sykes says
“Jon
Once again a most interesting read -and yes I do recall your words of warning way back when we all were thinking of what Santa was bringing for Christmas 2015 – so mate how many of us heeded the words – not me!!
Crazy isn’t it -most of us really only contemplate the ramifications of a particular course of action once it is thrust in front of us, I confess to guilty of that, as I guess would many others who subscribe to the social media phenomenon – which by the way as a result of this election has just had a most spectacular introduction to the world, meaning that if world leaders were not treating this communication mechanism seriously before now – and I suspect they were not, then these recent happenings will definitely change the way in which it is utilized. From this day forward expect the price of direct mail lists (email addresses etc) to increase substantially and direct marketers to clamber for all kinds of public contact opportunities.
OK so that’s enough of that digression for the time being – how do I feel about President Trump??
From the outset my concern was always his non acceptance of the Paris Agreement and opposition to Climate Change – even blind Freddy knows that potentially the biggest threat to this world as we know it right now, is the impact that our lifestyles are having on the environment and to sweep action “under the rug” in the name of economic viability is foolhardy – the world cannot afford not to address the problem irrespective of its financial position. That being said….
My other major concern with him is his “me first” mentality which he also has made clear from the outset – me first referring to the USA and his plan to build walls, increase armed services, force smaller countries to set-up and establish their own defense forces and to re-assess/alter the trade agreements already in place with other nations -(Australia included) which is also quite clearly one of Malcolm Turnbull’s major dilemmas. Aside from all of that -I like most of us regard with some admiration the work he has done to build an empire (Trump Enterprises) almost from scratch – remembering that the foundations of this business had been instigated by his father, and will watch as an interested spectator the imprint his “modus operandi” will have on the world.