How did we all get it so, so wrong?
Well, what do you know? Scomo won. Who saw that coming?
The answer to that seemingly rhetorical question is ‘literally no one’ and to me is the biggest story in this election. This changes everything.
Everyone is taking stock of this new political reality, and there’s a lot to it, but I reckon there are three key bombshells worth paying attention to.
Bombshell 1: We’re all flying blind
The incredible thing about this election is just how wrong the polls got it.
People are acknowledging it, but I don’t think people get how profound this is.
Because it’s not just the Newspolls etc that got it wrong – like massively wrong – it was the parties’ own internal polling.
And literally just 6 weeks ago, both parties had internal polling that said it was going to be a Labor landslide.
Seriously. Word was a lot of Government MPs were lining up their post-political careers.
But all the polls were wrong.
Now the two parties are sophisticated marketing machines these days. They use all the (dark) arts of advertising – focus groups, message testing, product testing.
And all their methods failed them.
And now it’s like they find themselves flying a jumbo jet with the sudden realisation that all of the signals coming from their control panel are just garbage.
… and it’s dark. And one of the passengers has stab wounds for some reason. And now a Chinese destroyer in the gulf has just started filling the sky with flak.
Both sides right now are going “WHAT THE F- JUST HAPPENED!?!?!”
So their job just got tougher. But it also means that all the policies they currently have on offer – they no longer have any idea if they’re popular policies or not.
They thought they were the goods. The test-groups responded well.
But now suddenly everything is up for grabs.
That leads us to bombshell number two:
Bombshell 2 – where the F- is the political centre?!?
Now let’s be very clear. Labor ran an old school Labor campaign. For them it was a break – there was a new, unashamed embrace of a progressive platform built around ideals like equality, fairness, and standing up for the down-trodden.
And I reckon their polling was telling them they were on to a winner. Remember when Daniel Andrews won the Victorian state election? Remember when he said how proud he was to be elected leader of the most ‘progressive’ state in the nation, and how progressive was coming up everywhere in his messaging?
None of that was an accident. Market testing on ‘progressive’, as a brand quality, must have been performing well.
But it didn’t translate into votes. The most progressive platform in a generation generated just a 2% swing in Victoria… and a bloodbath in Queensland.
At the same time, the Coalition must be wondering if the sampling they were doing them which suggested people weren’t down with how ‘conservative’ they were becoming, was actually correct…
Maybe they could actually afford to be even more conservative?
Expect to see a strong push right in coming months.
Bombshell 3 – But people don’t really care
But I think the Conservatives who are emboldened by this victory need to be careful. When I look at the Queensland vote, I don’t see it as a vote for conservative values as much as it is a vote for a job.
I think people in rural Queensland were willing to vote for any party that could actually recognise their economic situation, and what the wholesale destruction of their key industries would actually mean for them personally.
This is the key to Queensland. Economics comes first. If you don’t feel secure in your financial situation, you’re going to find it very hard to get excited about moral political posturing of any sort.
The Liberals will well to keep this in mind. I’m not sure they will, but they should.
JG
Rosy says
As an older Queenslander, Labor’s alignment with the Greens scared me, particularly gender politics and radical climate change ideas with no thought to how to pay for them.
Rudolf Ruyter says
I don’t think either side (and we basically have only 2 sides) of politics realized how on the nose the Labor tax threats were with the average Australian…….not only directly on those affected, but also on those who may wish to partake in the near future…….ie buying an investment property,and loosing the negative gearing potential, buying shares and the Govt stealing our extra taxes paid for us, stealing the franking credits from our parents, over taxing and thus stealing what parents are building for their kids inheritance (which affects both the kids & the parents) and thus affecting the “Parent Bank” which helps many youngsters finance their 1st house….etc etc
I know there was not just 1 factor…there were many & varied…….but these financial factors basically showed the tip of the iceberg Labor showed it was willing to send our way…….and it worried the voters that Labor may sink the ship…….Today’s voters are not as naive as they were in the Whitlam era….
Regards
Rudolf
Kristi Smile says
We have worked in the pre-poll all the way up for GAP. We had hoped telling people about how the Govt who runs them is unlawful, Whitlam removed our Constitution in 73 for a fake one & Beasley removed our Queen for a Corporate ABN no in 84. We are in Perth and the people didnt give two hoots to listen, dead eyed and grim they filed in to vote the two majors. Yes we had a larger amount of minor votes but at the count houses a lot of corruption has occurred and AEC people were seen to slide informal votes into the majors piles. United, Yellow vests, Anning and us smaller ones were swept aside in the name of corrupt, rigged Corporation controlled Govt and Labor not winning I say is yet another decision of them knowing how the people felt. Labor should of won from where we stood at our pre-poll it was a sea of red? Are we glad they failed yes we are, but sad Libs stayed in looking at what they have enabled to happen to this country over the past four years, the next four are going to be grim & even more impoverished for those already on the line. People need to understand their Constitution annotated 1900 UK holds all their true rights and laws. Anything not referendum law change is illegal. Thats a lot of laws since 1973 isnt it. Come join GAP and help bring your country back to herself we are sliding down a very socialist path into Communism fast.