NASA’s done a study on predicting the end of civilisation, and there are some important lessons. The data look grim for us, but I still have faith in humanity.
I’ve never known why we spend so much time worry about Armageddon. What’s the point stressing about the possibility of a meteor destroying all life on earth, if there’s no way to predict it and no way to prevent it?
It’s just bringing pointless stress into your life.
And it’s one of those quirks of the human mind. We spend a lot of time worrying about meteor’s and black-swan events in financial markets, and less time worrying about getting hit by a bus or years of sub-par returns, even though these are infinitely more likely.
But I think it can be fun to ponder the end of civilisation. In the past 10,000 years how many civilisations have risen into positions of unassailable strength, only to completely collapse in the blink of an eye. The Egyptians, The Romans, The Mayans, The Aztecs… That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
From this perspective, the current global order of things doesn’t seem so permanent.
So what can we learn from the collapse of previous orders? Well, NASA commissioned a study to see what we could learn from history. (yes NASA – with the rockets and the landing on the moon and all that. I’m not sure what their angle is here. Maybe they’re tried to build funding for escape podules.)
Anyway, when they cast their eyes back through history, they found that there were three common and inter-related factors in the ruins of every great civilisation.
- Over-population
- Lack of available resources
- A drastically skewed wealth distribution
One and two are kind of the same. The amount of resources you need depends on the size of your population. So it kind of gives us two scenarios for the end of civilisation as we know it.
In the first scenario, wealth inequality kills society. The wealthy grow to consume too much of the world’s resources leading to a collapse in the common class. Having broken the back of the workers who are carrying them around, the demise of the wealthy elites is inevitable.
In the second scenario, we just run out of resources. There simply isn’t enough minerals, water, land, internet (the fundamentals of human life) to sustain us. There’s also an inequity aspect to this. As the resources dry up, it’s the poor working folk who go to the wall first. The rich try to insulate themselves for as long as they can, but eventually reality catches up with them.
So how are we tracking? Is the end nigh? There’s a few ways to get a handle on this…
First up, we can look at population. That’s been on a strong upward run since the 70s, and won’t be levelling out anytime soon. It’s a grim picture if you’re worried about over-population.
But the population data is a bit meaningless without knowing how much resources each person is using.
On that measure, things aren’t looking great. Natural resource depletion (as a percent of income – so how much we’ve got to eat into natural resources to produce the same amount of stuff) is on the rise again. We weren’t doing too bad in the 90s, but it jumped up in the 2000s, dropped after the GFC, but is on the rise again.
It’s a crude measure, but we’re not headed in the right direction.
Another way to look at it, is to look at how many years our current known resources have left. The amazon’s got almost a couple of hundred years before it’s completely deforested (which is better than I thought, but 200 years isn’t that long really).
But a lot of our other resources have a lot less. Coal has 42 years. Oil 37. Looks like a great many of our resources will run dry in my lifetime. (gulp.)
On the inequality front, we’re actually doing better, as a planet. Inequality in the OECD has actually plateaued in recent years:
But my suspicion is that this is mostly due emerging middle classes in our developing countries. I’ve seen some charts that have shown that income inequality actually got a lot worse in the US after the GFC. I don’t know what it is here.
Anyway, last time I checked there didn’t seem to be much support amongst the global elites for sharing the wealth around.
Well, you can’t accuse me of seeing the world through rose coloured glasses. There are some pretty major challenges on the horizon.
However, I’m still an optimist at heart, and I think there’s some important qualifiers.
The first is the role technology plays. No other empire existed in the technological quickening that we’re experiencing. That won’t save us in and of itself, but it does open up some possibilities.
Take solar energy for example. The solar industry achieves greater and greater economies every year. Soon, we could be looking at economic systems built on ‘free’ energy. Once that fundamental building block changes, the whole game changes.
Imagine for example, solar powered robots mining the world’s garbage dumps to recycle metals and minerals. Or solar powered desalination plants creating water for agricultural land.
I’m not hanging my hat on solar-powered robots to save us, but I’m conscious that we live in a time where the lag between our sci-fi dreams and reality is getting shorter by the day. It’s enough to give me a ray of hope.
And I also believe in humanity. We’re and ingenious species capable of incredible things (including the great miracle of being beautiful towards each other). When push comes to shove, I’ve seen humans rise above incredible challenges. I have to believe that we’ll find a way.
I’m not saying sit back and relax, everything will be sweet. And I would like to see a bit more leadership on this stuff.
But I’m not going to wallow in depression about how we’re all going to hell in a hand basket.
What’s the point of that?
deanmc01 says
Where do these figures come from?
The Oil, Gas & coal figures are miles out.
Mario says
Jon, the articles you post are always incisive, informative and just downright interesting. Don’t know what you do in your spare time, but I’m sure there are a few newspaper hacks out there worried that you might make this a full time gig!
graham says
WTF, how wrong can the coal figures be? Last I heard there was enough coal in Victoria to last 400 years and enough Natural gas for 500 years.
Nice try……….
Alistair Brownell says
Those numbers are just to supply Victoria needs, but the reality is there are massive deposits of resources like coal all over the place. In qld, the new Carmichael mine is being planned to produce 60 million tones per annum for 90 years. BHP has barely scratched the surface of its deposits with hundreds over years worth of underground mining possible in the current open cut pits. This figure actually increases each year as the open cuts expand. All of the other major producers are in the same boat. The Galilee basin is just starting to be developed and it is much larger than the bowen basin and there are more coal basins that are untouched right over to the west coast. Then there is the rest of the world. Right through Africa and south America there are vast reserves of coal that are not yet mined because the security/political situation is too volatile to make it viable while there are cheap reserves in places like Australia. China, Mongolia, Russia and eastern Europe all have massive reserves albeit a little deeper underground than Australia. Not to mention the fact that everywhere coal seam gas is being extracted, there is a coal seam to be mined in the future
Anka says
Thank you, Jon, for another interesting topic. There is no reason to worry. The time to introduce new resources is near. Why would the world depend on the depleating resources until the ‘end’?
Leo says
Hi Jon. Hello Anka! … Where and what are these new resources? Any new thing, (no matter how marvelous) that will be produced in the future will still be made from the resource materials already here. When those are gone it’s back to the stone age and we might be a bit cold then also, as there won’t be any trees to burn wood. We might just be lucky if we can still breath as there should still be oxygen producing plants that we don’t burn. We won’t produce wonderful things to save us if the minerals are depleted. Try thinking right now what will happen without wood, coal, oil, gas & electricity. Think of the world the way it was before any of those things were discovered and you will get an insight to where we are headed.
Hey Anka, I’m not aiming at you, your statement just made me really think about the reality.
Cheers, Leo
Marat says
We do not need to think….
Una says
Thanks John for another insightful topic. I suppose sometimes we can’t really help but worry about things in this life. Just make me wonder if we’re heading towards the end of civilization, should we start selling off our investments??
Tom says
Love your querky humour Jon.
At the end of WW2, prior to learning about the aftermath of Hiroshima & Nagasaki, one of my Professors at Uni had been in favour of using A-Bombs to blast a channel from Port Augusta to Central Aus – to flood the Central depression and alter the climate of the whole continent.
Now, he would probably prefer to construct a huge pipeline; and using solar-powered booster pumps, siphon the water over the hills to solar stills out in the Red Centre. The red soils are extremely fertile, since the soluble nutrients have not been leached out by runoff of natural precipitation. We live on the edge of the desert and you should see what happens when we DO happen to get rain. Jack’s beanstalk was nothing compared with our weeds!!! All that desalinated irrigation water would transpire or evaporate again and fall as rain on the hills and mountains in the East – to be re-used for irrigation on the Murray-Darling plains. As I said a few weeks ago, we need politicians of vision, who can actually THINK – not just utter three-word slogans and toe the Party Line, like good little obedient numbats.
Dean says
Jon,
Thanks for making your blog site more rounded and full than just a “invest in me’ kinda place. i am very happy to see your blogs mutating into more holistic and thoughtful prose. It is good to see you in a more well rounded more versatile light than a while back and i appreciate this.
You raise some good issues here, many of which i am not qualified to speak..
I agree with Tom, that we need stronger, more driven, less opportunist leaders in Australia, let alone the world. Sadly, the reality is, even if the numbers are not as dire as people question above, the situation is critical. Moreso sadly, the required responses we need are global..not national….but in reality, locally, statewide, nationally, regionally and globally we need to beat to the same drum to address sooo many of the core issues we are facing. Resource exploitation, distribution, management and waste issues associated with these are not and should not be issue which we toss our local leaders out on..however we may dislike them..(eg carbon taxes etc).
Australia is already suffering from our abuses of fossil fuels etc, which has led to holes in the ozone layer for example. The result?…2 in 3 Australians will be diagnosed with skin cancers by the time they are 70! Australia has one of the highest rates of skin cancer in the world, and already 2000 Aussies die of this every year.750,000 Aussies are treated for skin cancer every year,,thats 2000 a day!.
we already are suffering strongly for our resource exploitation. This will only exacerbate as global warming and its side effects kick in. And this is just one minor aspect of our fossil fuel exploitation and dependence.
Sadly, whilst i understand the technological argument regarding saving our asses, i am in the pessimistic camp regarding our abilities, as a herd of humans…to overcome the imperatives that require to be addressed, to allow and ensure the success of these technological advances upon our planet.
Sure,,there will be localised successes, in more well advanced colonies of secularised individuals with social tendencies, good education and allocations for scientific research.. However, the majority of global responses will be knee jerk..(eg air con to over come global warming..which actually exacerbates global heating thru resource usage..electricity)..or higher and electric fences to overcome resource allocation failure…(stop them buggars from stealing from me)… and nations putting up bigger and bigger barriers to those “aliens’ from other worlds who want to come and spoil our paradise and drain our resources…(ring a bell out there aussis?)…all which seems to be the ad hoc and self oriented ways that the world is going.
No, i do not believe that the world can overcome its huge failures,…which to me all stem from the human condition. We are all…(including me)..way too selfish, greedy, arrogant, ignorant, scared, ill educated, nationalistic, and bound by religious bullshit that separates and destroys abilities to gel together to make this planet we live in a possibility. (and that list of faults is not all inclusive either!)
Personally, i have given up. By this i mean, i have made a conscious choice not to have children in this dog eat dog resource depleted,sad world. I have chosen to step outside the paradigm of social constructs that rules most peoples lives. I regard morality more important than legality any day.I view myself as a global citizen, and attempt to reduce my for example ecological “foot print” , but also accept that ecologically the world is doomed. I am a militant atheist, and am happy to go toe to toe with any religious freaks that base their decision making upon such pathetic frameworks. let people have their pathetic beliefs, but lets keep it well away from decision making and global realities…(but good luck with that hey!. God bless america!)
No Una..dont sell ya shares just yet…these realities are a few generations off…your kids kids will suffer the result of your greed and ignorance …well..hopefully it will wait till then…
Don says
Basically it is correct that there will be an end, somewhere to the human race. We just cannot keep breeding like rabbits, defending our numbers with science & consuming even more resources. I am not religious but even the Bible says that there is an end.
In the meantime here is a couple of interesting related topics. Fossil fuels that were heralded in the 70’s to run out by by the 2000’s obviously have not. The reason is fossil fuels are not fossil, they are the boil off from the magma in the earths centre. Why then are the Russians the best deep oil extractors in the world & why are empty oil wells filling again over time ?
Anyone believing a few forests rotting not far under the surface can supply the incredible amount of oil extracted everyday must not have thought too much.
Here is another one, although this is new & unverified. There is some leaking of news of a new source of pollution free energy called sungas, which is derived from the sun & water using super high temperatures. Its on Google, have a look.
So maybe we will still last a while yet, but ultimately…….it appears bigger than all of us.
lilmis says
That was a pretty good read! I hope that as we evolve being wealthy wont always be on such a superficial level. We as a species are achieving a level of acceptance of what we are, and only then is change and a positive use of technology going to become mainstream and make a difference. Everyone will always have differing opinions. I think the important thing is that people have awareness and articles like this at least get people thinking about how to use their powers for good not evil…. 🙂 The main thing here is that people begin making mindful choices and investments sooner rather than later. With or without the impending doom of civilisation.
ismael says
Other sources of info apart from NASA mostly found in You Tube depict a grim segment of human history such as the one cited in the book of Revelations of the Bible and supported by astrological and astronomical finding that in every almost 4000 years a gigantic planet belonging to a different solar system 4 times the size of Jupiter gets close to our own solar system and overlaps the orbits of the planets creating a huge impact on the magnetic forces that keep the planet in order. Tsunami waves about a kilometer high will allegedly strike every coast. That’s just one of the alleged source of doomsday coming outside planet earth. Then there’s Nibiru or Planet X, grey aliens in their UFO’s, huge solar flares that will create EMP’s that will virtually fry all electronic gadgets setting us back to the caveman’s way of life with no TV’s, internet, fridges air con and all electrical implement that has made our lives comfortable as it is.
Volcanic eruptions which seems to have a chain reaction will be the planet’s way of reacting to the global warming that industrialization using fossil fuel has introduced and continue to to worsen. A polar shift which may be caused by the approaching planet, plus the carbon dioxide fumes that are suspended in the atmosphere which has the effect of incubating the earth, can cause the icecaps to melt plunging most of the low lying areas underwater. Yellowstone Park in the US which literally sits on the crater of a super volcano has reportedly increased in ground height indicating growing magma movement that might cause it explode thousands of feet into the atmosphere and cover the entire earth with gray ash that would block the sun for years sending the earth to a new ice age that will freeze all living things. And as we know by now, volcanic eruptions like the one in Japan cause massive disturbance on tectonic plates beneath sea dislodging the water that will then crash into the shore as “tsunamis”.
Mankind is now capable of creating these disasters. In fact, an elite group allegedly intends to do so as part of a depopulisation plan which includes creating virus such as AIDS and gradual poisoning of processed foods, even water. This group which has been in existence for centuries were responsible even for the world wars and will soon be delighted if the Third world war that they are secretly instigating finally breaks out. This elite group has built huge cities underground where they could live in preparation to these colossal natural or man made disasters. And as the info breakers make it appear, doomsday is near. One of the most stupid gimmick this group has done to mankind is create money, horde all the gold and own all the big banks, loan their own printed cash to enslave us all in the economy that they actively manipulate. My opinion is, they are trying to discover a way of manipulating DNA;s that will produce cells that would make them immortal, hence, rule the world forever.
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KatM says
Intriguing comment Ismael. It’s a pity more people aren’t actively opposing the destruction of Earth’s natural resources and speaking out to fight injustice. What can we do when these elites are selling us games, movies, drugs, alcohol, pulp fiction and tourism to entertain, distract and insulate us from the suffering of the oppressed subjugated serfs? We need to respect cultural and religious diversity, fight for freedom of expression and elect leaders who will honour and serve everyone, not just the puppet masters and the faceless corporations that fund the presidential races, hoping to achieve free trade.
Peter says
I have to say your articles are getting more interesting but I think you rely too much on hearsay and do not or cannot verify some of the stuff you put out there. Unfortunately that makes you a fiction writer – but an improving one !
Clive West. says
We will succumb to an inevitable “slow cancer” called “overpopulation” Bono and all these so called “do gooders” are blind to the real problem facing us on this planet. There will always be poverty whilst you have overpopulation. The answer is not war or pestilence to resolve the problem, that is inhuman. What is needed to avoid disaster, and isn’t being done enough, is to encourage people to have less kids. Not having no kids, just less kids. The poorest sections of the world community have the most kids. Everyone born needs space, food, water and shelter. To accommodate these vast increase in numbers will eventually destroy the environment, completely if we don’t do something about it. Not suggesting a one child policy, just two or three kids per couple will fix the problem. In this day and age with aid and support, no family needs to have 16 children. Not only is it madness it’s downright cruel, bringing enormous amounts of children into the world having to endure a life of poverty, deprecation, hunger and misery in overcrowded, unhealthy slums and shantytowns. Unfortunately the more you feed the problem the worse it gets. Certainly not saying that we don’t help our fellow human beings in trouble but rather to combine aid with enlightenment as to what is causing the problem in the first place. A reduction in birthrates should be done with population enlightenment, encouragement and even incentives if necessary, not by laws or enforcement. Since we have some of the most enlightened generations in all of mankind’s history it’s appalling that we are not doing anywhere near enough to help in this direction. If we do we will save our environment for everyone, now and in the future, together with a happier population worldwide living in harmony with nature instead of destroying it. All the talk of climate change, destruction of habitat and species, depletion of resources, which is very real, as well as the welfare and happiness of everyone on the planet fundamentally boils down to this one major problem, insane, unbridled, overpopulation. Lets step back a moment, think about it and then let us get on and do something about it. It is not inhuman to encourage people to have less kids in overpopulated areas of the world, it is common sense for their own well being. To not do this is perhaps one of the most inhuman things that we are guilty of, which is exactly what we are currently doing, ironically in the name of humanity. There is absolutely nothing inhuman in encouraging people in wildly overpopulated areas to have less kids in their own best interests and the interests of the huge numbers of new kids that they bring into a world of misery caused by the very existence of the already excess numbers of people living in poverty and deprivation in their respective communities.
Think about it.
Ron West.
stu says
FIGURES ARE INCORRECT
Helena Smirnis says
Hi Jon,
have you seen this Documentary called “Resonance, Beings Of Frequency” the link is
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhMFvZFHo2c
l consider myself a extremely optimistic person, but this could be our civilisations undoing, and because of humanities ignorance on this matter.