Wine exports are getting hit. Where does it end?
So Australia’s $1.1bn wine export industry has become the latest victim in our on-going spat with China.
It’s no secret that their anti-dumping investigation is retaliation for taking sides with the US. They know it, we know it. Let’s just call a spade a spade.
Australia is responding with what is cutely being called “The Morrison Doctrine”. In Scomo’s words:
“We will never trade away our sovereignty in Australia on any issue. We will be consistent. We will be clear. We will be respectful and we will get on with the business.”
That is, “Yeah, nah, we’re going with America on this one hey. But if you still want to trade with us, we’re keen for that.”
You could call this the “having your cake and eating it too” doctrine.
And I don’t see it flying.
America is drawing a pretty clear line in the sand these days.
You can trace it back to a speech that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made last month in the Richard Nixon Library. (Seriously, how did that guy get a library named after him? Should have been a T.A.B)
Anyway, Pompeo declared that this was a global struggle that should involve all nations since “securing our freedoms from the Chinese Communist Party is the mission of our time”.
I mean, sure, this is in the context of an election year, and Trump has a lot to gain from a bit of old fashioned sabre-rattling.
Ban Tik-Tok. Call some Chinese leaders some funny names. It’s got to be good for the polls.
But still, I don’t think it means the change in strategic direction isn’t real or enduring.
When you think about it, the only surprising thing is that it hasn’t happened sooner.
It’s amazing that the US went with off-shoring all of their critical infrastructure and economy to a strategic rival for so long.
In what universe does it make sense for Chinese companies (under the control of the CCP) to be building the communications infrastructure for the US defence force?
That was never going to last.
And now we’re here. With the world waking up to the reality that the US and China are strategic rivals.
And that doesn’t have to be a bad thing. Coke and Pepsi are strategic rivals, and that competition largely results in a cheaper and better kind of soft-drink.
(Still, Coke and Pepsi don’t have nukes, so there is that.)
But now that the strategic rivalry is exposed, China and the US are tallying their friends.
Australia, as it probably should be, is on the US side of the ledger.
And in the context of a global rivalry, that makes Australia the sharp end of the US spear in the Asia-Pacific.
China is obviously not happy about that. And China has shown that it very willing to leverage economic power into political power, and the bans on wine, beef, wheat and whatever else is coming, are just the start of that.
Expect more of it.
Iron ore will be last, but even that will have to go eventually. Is the US really going to be happy with us selling the raw material of bullets and war-ships to their major rival?
Not for long.
So we need to get ready, right now.
We have allowed our economy to be dangerously reliant on a single economy. We put all our eggs in the basket of the Chinese century.
It’s time to start spreading those eggs around.
Better we do it now than have matter forced upon us.
But if you think the Morrison Doctrine is going to fly, you’re dreaming. You don’t get to have your cake and it too.
The die has been cast. Time to start building the post-China economy today.
JG.
Helena says
Jon,
your dreaming. Come November the US will be in Civil War because of the election outcome and where will Australia be without its ally.
Daniel Andrews has done a brilliant job at destroying our Economy, selling off our assets to China and signing the Belt and Road deal with Beijing, who are just waiting for the final pounce.
Unless Australian’s start thinking for themselves, and not leave the decision making up to our Foreign controlled Pollies, l say we are pretty much stuffed.
Bill says
Pretty much everyone I’ve spoken to is on to the CCP threat and frustrated that the pollies are destroying our country just to line their own pockets.
Jennifer Edelman says
Sorry, Jon. I like a lot of your comments, but “Coke and Pepsi are better soft drinks”?? Not sure of your definition of “better”, but it seems not to be consistent with any dictionary definition I know of.. It is some of the most toxic rubbish imaginable.
On another aspect- Australia leasing Darwin Harbour to the Chinese has to be a level of insanity rarely seen. And allowing Chinese to buy any amount of real estate they want to. Do you think you could go to China and buy real estate? And there is the air field in northern Western Australia – another terrifying prospect. Combined with the islands China is creating as well as the ones it is effectively taking over in the Pacific, they are flexing their might in nasty ways. And do you really think the USA will come to our aid? I can’t see that happening.
Eunice Maraea Kizmaz says
Hi John,
I understand what you are saying, and I echo Jennifer’s sentiments regarding Coke and Pepsi, being the most toxic rubbish imaginable.
Now back to the main Agenda.
Australia is siding with the USA over the South China sea strategic muscle-flexing of China. Don’t forget; tensions were electric since Australia’s decision in April 2020 to go ahead with an inquiry into COVID-19. China is answering this by ‘spitting the dummy’ and introducing tariffs on Australian barley and the banning of beef imports.
Speeches made by Mike Pompeo, Trump inputs amidst an election year, Trump trying to appear as though ‘he has a plan’ and we now have a recipe that could wreck the 247 billion dollars dual trading income as a result of China trading.
This conversation needs level-headed, strategic thinking, the kind you get from Harvard political and economic analysts – the likes of which I am not.
However, as an Australian citizen, I’m not too fond of Scomo siding with Trump at any time; in the end, Australia and Australians will suffer. The families and guys that don’t have 200k pension funds to rely on annually.
I think we are missing the big picture; I would prefer we re-focus on the elephant in the room.
How and why COVID-19 happened.
How has it been allowed to continued and to terrorise the world so fast, so quickly and so devastatingly? And last but not least; what was China’s role in compensating the victims if they did play a role?
These questions are unanswered because China is defending their position fiercely, flexing its might in the south pacific all to deflect from the COVID-19 trillion-dollar unanswered question?
We as Australia and the world should continue to fiercely ask for answers – What happened, when happened and why happened.
Until I see real answers based on factual evidence and investigations by an independent body, (the United Nations WHO), I will continue to pray and pay more for Australian made and ask others to support 100%, Australian made as well and write about my localised thoughts.
John, I have spent the past month thinking about what you have written, that is why I am trying to make sure I do my research, come up with a reflection that represents me, my family, my dynamics and my hopes and dreams for a brighter future Australia.
In the end, I am resorting to God, and I will end on this, God Help Australia because the Prime Minister certainly isn’t.
Fragrantlilys says
Most people fear what they do not wish to understand.
What China will be like as a great power?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uBjvklYLShM
Fragrantlilys says
What does Mr. Bean say on Wuhan lockdown?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XSrMmE6qdxk
Fragrantlily says
Civilization states (2000 years) vs Nation states (100 years)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dENpW1ct638&t=4s