Trump has locked in the Republican nomination, Hilary Clinton campaign seems set to self-destruct. Only Bernie can save America now.
So Ted Cruz has pulled out of the Republican race, leaving no one but Trump. He’s got so much momentum on his side that the even the establishment’s dirtiest tricks won’t stop him now.
It is tempting for me to gloat. I called it early and people laughed at me. But I’m not here to do that. I’ll have my Sportsbet payout to comfort me through the night.
And I know Trump is a polarising figure. But I don’t want that to distract you from the real juice of what’s going on. So let’s agree that Trump is a manical blow-hard, who probably hates babies and kicks little dogs when nobody’s looking.
But can we at least agree that Trump has some real skills. The Bush dynasty – destroyed. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz – destroyed. The entire Republican establishment – destroyed.
If you can’t see that there’s some sort of skill set involved here, then you can probably stop reading now. I’ve got nothing for you today.
There is a powerful skill set involved here. As I’ve said, Trump is a master negotiator. He literally wrote the book on it. I’ve learned more than a trick or two from him myself.
Sometimes you’re negotiating with one person. Sometimes with a handful. But the techniques stay the same… even if you’re negotiating with an entire country.
And the key here is framing. People rarely use facts alone to make a decision (I’d actually say people rarely use facts).
So if you’re trying to convince someone of something, there’s no point trying to argue the facts, unless you’ve sold them on the frame.
And that’s true whether you’re asking your builder for a discount, trying to convince your partner to go on a cruise, or get elected for office.
So look at the Trump game through this lens. He doesn’t know who the President of Azerbaijan is. That’s a fact and facts don’t matter. Right now, the Trump campaign is all about frame.
We might complain about that. We might like to think politics should be a robust evidence-based discussion of the issues, but we all know it’s not.
It’s about a public with a 2-minute noodle attention span trying to get a ‘feel’ for who they like more, by looking at small snippets of politicians through a biased media.
And we get the outcomes we’d expect.
Trump sees the game for what it is, and he’s working it.
You know who’s not working it? Hilary Clinton.
I’m looking at Clinton’s campaign, and thinking, “is she actually trying to lose?”
Take her new campaign slogan.
“LOVE TRUMPS HATE”
It’s a little confusing, right? You kind of have to read it twice to figure out what she means. And then you go, oh, that’s kinda clever. Kinda.
But anyone in marketing would see this for the disaster it is. First up, it increases Trump’s exposure, and you’re paying for it. It’s also reminding people that the word trump actually means ‘win’.
And then people tend to emphasise the start of a sentence. Love, Trump, something something.
And then Clinton hardly embodies love. If you’re encouraging people to vote purely on their hearts, then they’ll vote for Bernie Sanders. He’s so darn cute.
So it’s a fail all round there.
And then there’s the “woman card” issue that blew up this week. Trump made the call that without the “woman card” Clinton would be polling 5%. He was saying that she was riding a public hunger for a woman president, but had little merit on her own.
It was a little risky, but perhaps he thought he’d have to deal with the gender issue (not his strongest area) at some point, so may as well get it out early.
In response, Clinton pulled a classic “double-down, reframe.”
She said that at if fighting to make the world better for women is playing the “woman card” then you can “Deal me in!”
The double-down reframe is usually a solid play if it’s open to you. A few months ago someone labelled Trump a “whiner”, and he said yes, he was the strongest voice for change.
Agree, magnify, frame it as a good thing.
So it seemed like a good idea. Trump is definitely weak on his perceived relationship to women.
But then things got a little weird. Clinton’s campaign actually came out an issued an actual gender card.
I think this was an incredibly dumb idea, but talk about a design disaster. First up they’ve taken the logo off a female toilet, so the first thing you think is that it is a passcard for a pay-per-use toilet.
Secondly, why is there a magnetic strip? What can you buy with a woman card? It’s like someone is trying to make a bad sexist joke about how women go crazy with credit cards.
They could have used playing cards, which is what I would have first thought of, but then Hilary would have been Queen, which means someone has to be King…
(Yes, it is a sexist world.)
Kings Trump Queens.
But it all just kind of agrees with what Trump is saying. There’s a hunger to right the wrongs of gender-inequality (fantastic time to be alive), and Clinton is using that as cover for her personal and political failings.
And so Clinton goes and gives that idea physical form… in an actual card.
I think what Clinton should have done is gone after Trump and said, this is typical Trump. He’s taken a problem with my strength and my courage, and made it about gender. He’s a douchebag.
That would of resonated.
Effectively, Clinton’s woman card says you should look past my personality and my policies, and vote for me because I’m a woman.
I once new the head of a government department who would tear anyone to shreds if they suggested that she had got her job ‘because she was a woman’.
So perhaps the women can correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think this connects with anyone, and isolates a tonne of people.
So I’m writing Clinton off. If it’s Trump vs Clinton, it’s Trump in a landslide.
And so to me it looks like the only thing that can save us from a Trump future is Bernie Sanders. Bernie has real momentum, but it looks like the Democratic establishment is trying to lock him out too.
Oh man, what I wouldn’t give for a Trump vs Sanders match up. Two big hitters throwing punches from outside the system. We’re talking about the potential for real change then. Like “flower-power revolution” grade social change then.
It could be amazing.
And if American citizens wake-up and realise that their democracy has been sold out from under them, what’s to stop it happening here? How much love do Turnbull, Shorten and the major parties actually have?
I reckon most people would throw them under a bus if real change was an option.
A boy can dream.
Was Clinton’s move with the woman card a ‘fail’? Are we on the brink of revolution?
Sean says
That was a fun read. Well done.
David says
Scott Adams of Dilbert fame predicted this last year actually. Tell me – if Hillary is ‘for woman’ and playing a gender card, there will be plenty of alienated men out there who won’t vote for her. I think it’s over too. Trump will have her for breakfast.
As for politics here in Australia? I’m voting None of the Above. The Liberals have proven themselves to be worse than labour dysfunction wise. I wish the electorate could have kicked Abbott in the teeth. That wasn’t Turncoat’s right to do that. So a pox on both their houses. (Long time Liberal voter here). I actually thought Gillard’s misogynist card on Abbot was a load of crap and expected actually that Abbott would be a great Prime Minister. But he went out of his way to screw that up and make us all suckers.
George Serghis says
Hi Jon,
It would be fair to say with all due respect that Donald Trump is a Raging Bull, so how do you stop that momentum?. It is a New World out there, with a new breed of consumers, I am thinking that his opponents are too week and don’t have what it takes
Anth says
Yes Jon you are correct, but it’s not what you don’t know that will get you in trouble, it’s what you THINK you know for sure.
So Hillary to win. Why? Simple.
It’s rigged. 😉
1. She should be in prison already for her illegal activities.
2. The Establishment has ensured that only two families have run the US for the last 30 odd years. Bush and Clintons.
3. How does the wife of a former president even acquire the requisite skills to become a candidate? Through osmosis? Then next time I need an electrician, I’ll ask the plumber to send his wife…
4. Infinite other examples, but I’ll leave you with this thought… Al Gore & Florida… Whoops… Nah that wasn’t rigged… Even as dumb as some Americans are, in my travels there, I never found anyone who voted for him. Just sayin!
So. Unfortunately, lying stinking Hillary to win.
James Wheeler says
Oh the joy to read some fair dinkum cynicism…RAOFL at the punchline of ‘3’!!!
Karen says
I’m with you Jon, Trump to win. Hillary’s a crook, liar and callously left her ambassador to die in Benghazi. It’s a testimony to the corruption of the establishment she wasn’t indicted for that. I have no idea if Trump will be a better president. She would be a disaster however.
Mikey says
I do like your articles, they are the only spam that I actually like to get. So well done!
As far as women in high places go, they have been there from time to time but the ones that play the women card never last long. I have to say that as soon as they play that card I too instantly get the feeling that they want me to vote for them because they are a woman and not because of their polices. I pretty well instantly reject them when I feel like that. But maybe I am a bit harsh, maybe I should accept that improving the outlook for women is a worthy cause. I’d rather vote for someone that improves the outlook for everyone though.
peter says
The more the Establishment and journos work against Trump, the more likely he is to win. Celebrities and journos sniggering as Obama made jokes about Trump played right into his hands. Trump didn’t even need to turn up to win that contest. People still don’t get it. Trump appeals to voter’s emotions and the establishment retorts with high-minded but sanctimonious and supercilious derision. Ordinary people wont wear it. The God of political correctness is looking pretty self-serving – in both our countries.
What is needed is for the Republicans to try and guide and support him into being a responsible competent president, rather than destroy him. He has been reported to have an IQ in excess of 150. He may be a sexist buffoon but he is not a stupid sexist buffoon. Only stupid people actually think he is stupid. He can change his mind, he can negotiate. He’s actually good at that. How about some positive attitude towards Trump?
Kathy says
The day of reckoning draws closer.
On the US candidates, a Sanders and Trump election would be the best outcome, but probably not likely. A Trump and Clinton election is most likely.
The establishment and the insiders fear both Trump and Sanders because they are both outsiders. They are not beholden to the big companies and their political donations, the vested interests, the insiders who want to keep the status quo.
ron goddard says
hi jon, great article and very articulate…except why do we use tonne in lieu of ton..oh we’ve gone metric..:-) yes indeed big trumpie has gotten hold of the print media in ‘uncle sam’ territory. bought the lot..so he can get printed what he believes is the ‘truth’. boy is he gonna have a field day with the republican (existing ones)
senators etc. etc. i think you will find messrs. obama heading for the hills soon. its gonna be a bloodbath. really!! things beyond our or their control will surface i think. same here. cos we are always just behind the americanos in everything: finance, weaponry, agriculture(monsanto?) etc. etc. etc. yes we do live in exciting times..and being on the internet is like having a ringside seat lol one thing is for certain..’go home yank’ and
american b.s. will disappear. empires come and empires go. trump has more to do than be your uptown pres.
time will tell all. meantime lets try to stand tall as a nation and be ourselves instead of cowtowing to all and sundry via united nations. its all about the goodies and the baddies. america is 100% right and other nations like libya, iraq, russia etc. are bad ..bad man. really?? 100% baddies. what a laugh. americans have invaded 31 countries since ww2..they forgot about zimbabwe..oh no oil or drugs.. don’t worry let robert go on bankrupting his country.. ..democracy? a cover for exploitation by the americans..cheerio, ron
Shane says
Wow! The language Donald Trump uses when he speaks, even someone coming from the gutters speak better. Good luck to the people of America who elect him as President.
What is to become of this World, America, Australia building of a strong dictatorship/One World Order, controlling the whole world? With changes to the superannuation rules in Australia (back dated to 2007 – wonder how many people know about this in Australia) just a start by the current Prime Minister of Australia Malcolm Bligh Turnbull’s government. Majority of the people are still asleep, may be they wake up when it affects them personally which would be too late anyway. Then again both parties are self-centered it seems nobody is out there for Australia as a whole anymore. Australia seems to be adopting most of the stuff from America, health care for the rich only, working class poor forever, casualization or the workforce, and much more. This is not the Australia I have known and it is such a shame.
Tom says
Like Oz, the ‘Land of the Free’ is disillusioned. The abysmal negativity of the ruling parties of recent years has them craving a strong elected leader with vision. The problem with political elections is that they always deliver politicians – who are beholden to the bureaucracy, the Party’s faceless men, (Never women, by the way!) and industrial lobbyists. For all its theoretical, idealistic benefits, democracy, worldwide, has been hijacked by the world’s financier elites. The elected officials are controlled and restrained by those vested interests and powers behind the throne.
Push a waterbed down in one spot…
…It compensates by popping up somewhere else.
Suppressed citizens react to their suppression. In desperation, they elect a ruthless reality TV tyrant… “He can’t be any worse than the puppets we’ve been saddled with lately!!! He doesn’t suffer fools gladly. Hopefully, he may say, “You’re fired” to some of the lobbyists and bureaucratic puppets.” The Republican Tea-party has been vocal in recent years and European countries have similarly seen the rise of the far-right rabble-rousing, extremist, nationalistic groups.
Personally, I believe Donald ‘doth protest too much.’ His whole approach so far has been a clever, contrived performance. When ‘President’, he and his advisers will change gear and surprise us all with a very different presence – at least, that’s my hope!!!
The problem worldwide is that idealism and farsightedness in politics are almost dead and have been overwhelmed by self-interest.
From the back bench, Malcolm appeared to be a breath of fresh air. At that stage, he would have garnered support from even dyed-in-the-wool ALP supporters, who craved a visionary, vocal leader, who could negotiate and break through the partisan barriers. The “Mad Monk’s” negativity and powerful three-word slogans from ‘Opposition’ had previously given them hope, only to be shown to be insincere megalomaniac hype.
All the way through his political life, it has been obvious that ‘Mad Mal’ chose the wrong Party. Maybe he, like so many misguided Aussies, thinks that we are obliged to give political allegiance, according to our station in life, rather according to our reasoned convictions – based on ideas, ideals and aspirations.
Talk about being disillusioned!!! What a disastrous let-down!!!
regular_everyday_bloke says
I think everyone has forgotten that there aren’t just 2 parties. The bought-out biased media only puts the Reps and Dems in the news because those are the parties controlled by the elites. There are also independents and the libertarian party that are probably 100X better for the people of the US and the world. Unfortunately the MSM doesn’t allow those smaller parties to have any kind of publicity.
steve christo says
Jon,
I love coming home on a Friday night and sitting down after dinner and getting a dose of NO B.S. – no wife, no kids, no tv, just my own conspiracy theories, your blog and a tremendous community of like-minded men and women.
Love the community.
I especially loved tonight’s posts by everyone from regular_everyday_bloke to the regular commentator Ron Goddard (I felt the knife sink into my gut when you mentioned Monsanto — I pray they never get their tentacles into our farming community the way they have in the USA), I agree with Peter’s philosophy (the more they talk against Trump the more free publicity he gets), I don’t agree with Anth but a very valid point made … in two words (“It’s rigged”).
What has happened to democracy ? I know it’s gone … I understand the New World Order is coming … but when did we lose democracy … some say we lost it hundreds of years ago … I used to worry about the kind of life that our children’s children will have and the food they will eat and the technological advancements that will make them all fat and infertile … now i worry about me and mine … superannuation will soon be gone … the old age pension will never be enough to live on (survive … maybe … but not to live) .
Some japanese plan their businesses and family dynasty 100-200 years in advance, I can’t see a clear picture 15 years from now … driver-less cars … even more technology ruling our lives .. knowing every detail of our movements and our thoughts and circle of friends … I don’t like the direction music and fashion are headed (similar path to morals (en masse) and the food (again en masse) leaves a lot to be desired … the rat race is harder to get out of (I’m almost there – but don’t think I will ever be truly free) .
My favourite nutrionist / herbalists / healer spoke to me the other night about a very real problem (that is not getting any air-time) of the possibility that two generations from now we may have a very real existential threat to our population through lack of new-borns as a result of male impotency from the issues with our food and water (among other things)… then again some are saying that is one of the agendas of the new world order. I’m grateful we are Aussies … we have access to good air, water and food .. we just need to stay away from the commercialised factory made foods.
I think Kathy was right when she said … “the day of reckoning draws closer” … for economic reasons I’m keen to see how the world economy and oil war and currency war click into the next gear after the US election.
Interesting times ahead … I pray for one and all here that we may keep control of our thoughts and have some control of our paths in life.
Blessings to all.